Some French analysts, such as Professor Bertrand Badie, maintain that the Ukraine conflict is not a world war – at least not yet – but rather “a globalized war”. That semantic nuance is crucial. The warfare is limited, in effect, to a limited scenario, but its economic and geopolitical derivatives affect the entire planet. The coup in Niger is a clear example, as it seems inseparable from the struggle waged by Russia to extend its influence in Africa.
The military junta that seized power in Niamey on July 26 is radicalizing, with the risk of escalation that this entails. His latest announcements leave no room for doubt: an end to defense cooperation with France – which has 1,500 soldiers deployed in the country – and dismissal of the Nigerien ambassadors in Paris, the United States, Nigeria and Togo, who have not accepted the authority of the putschists.
The ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum, who remains detained in his palace but has been able to communicate with the outside world, wrote a dramatic article in The Washington Post, warning that if the coup plotters get their way, there will be “ devastating consequences for our country, our region and the entire world”.
According to Bazoum, who came to power after elections in 2021, the fate of Niger may be the same as that of neighboring countries, such as Mali or the Central African Republic, whose rulers make use of “Russian criminal mercenaries from Wagner, at the expense of the rights and dignity of their peoples”. “With an open invitation from the coup leaders and their regional allies, the entire central region of the Sahel would fall under Russian influence through the Wagner group, whose brutal terrorism has been fully exposed in Ukraine,” Bazoum stressed, who warned of the rise they could have. jihadist movements like Boko Haram, with attacks and indoctrination of youth in anti-Western hatred. For all these reasons, the deposed president requests the help of the US government and the entire international community to “help restore our constitutional order.”
The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs considered that only “legitimate Niger authorities” can break military collaboration with Paris. However, if the coup consolidates, the French troops will be forced to leave sooner rather than later, as they have already done in Mali and Burkina Faso. Paris tries to preserve a certain pride in the face of an inevitable outcome that will seal the fiasco of its ambitious and expensive policy in the Sahel since 2013.
In addition to de facto inviting the French troops to leave, since their use of a base and the status of the soldiers in the country no longer have legal support, Paris suffered another unfriendly measure, the suspension of the broadcasts in Niger territory of the networks France 24 and RFI, which devote extensive coverage to news from Africa. The European Union described the decision as “unacceptable” and condemned the violations of fundamental rights that the coup junta is committing.
The mediation attempt by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) failed. The strong man in Niamey, General Abourahamane Tiani, refused to receive the emissaries, who were also unable to meet with Bazoum. The diplomatic management had to explore some way of rapprochement before the expiration of the ultimatum, on Sunday, given by Cedeao for the coup leaders to back down and restore Bazoum to his post, an increasingly remote possibility today. The internal situation seems stabilized, as suggested by the lifting of the curfew, which had been in force since the day of the putsch.
Spain was finally able to repatriate part of its nationals residing in Niger. An Air Force Airbus A330 transported 74 passengers of 18 nationalities from Niamey to the Torrejón de Ardoz base in Madrid. The shipment of the plane required diplomatic efforts that took several days. About twenty Spaniards have already left the country in one of the planes sent by France.
International economic pressure continued on the coup junta. The Netherlands joined other EU partners and also suspended their aid. These measures are painful for a very poor country whose national budget depends 40% on foreign assistance.
