In the Elysée they are very concerned about the prospect, indicated by all the polls, of a catastrophic result for the government list in the European elections on June 9. According to the newspaper La Tribune Dimanche, close to Emmanuel Macron, the French president “is tempted” to challenge Marine Le Pen to a televised debate to try to stop the push of the extreme right, the clear favorite in the elections.
The polls predict a resounding victory for the National Regroupment (RN), which could reach 31% of the votes, compared to a paltry 17% for the list headed by Valérie Hayer, the candidate of the Macronist party, Renaissance, and its allies. It is also the case that Hayer is threatened in second place by the list of the Socialist Party/Public Square, of the essayist Raphaël Glucksmann, which exceeds 13% and with a tendency to rise.
If such dark predictions for Macron’s candidate were confirmed, the president would be even more politically weakened in the remainder of his second term, which expires in May 2027. The head of state already lost a lot of capital when he was re-elected, since his They stopped having an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Since then, governing has been a painful exercise, full of difficulties.
A face to face with Le Pen, who already faced Macron in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, would give the latter the opportunity to show voters the contradictions of the extreme right and the weakness of his populist message. Even so, the bet would have its risks, since it would be interpreted as a desperate resource by a president in serious trouble. If, despite everything, the RN wins with a great advantage, the humiliation for Macron will be greater.
There is the historical example of the socialist François Mitterrand, who debated with the conservative Philippe Séguin, on September 3, 1992, before the referendum on the Maastricht treaty. Mitterrand’s initiative paid dividends in the outcome of the consultation. It also worked, in 2009, for the right-wing Nicolas Sarkozy when he became fully involved in the European elections. His party achieved a comfortable victory.
It is certain that there will be a debate, on May 23, between the prime minister, Gabriel Attal, and the head of the RN list and president of the party, Jordan Bardella. They are both very young. The premier is 35 years old. The leader of the extreme right, 28. They share dialectical ability and telegeny. If this debate were followed by another between Macron and Le Pen, the dynamics of the campaign would change.
Speculation in the French press is not limited to that hypothetical Macron-Le Pen duel. The newspaper Le Parisien echoed yesterday the reflection in the Elysée, among the advisors, on the strategy after the European elections, assuming that the result will be a hard blow. One of the alternatives that has been considered for some time would be to dissolve the National Assembly and call elections in September, after the Paris Olympic Games. Nothing would ensure, however, that the Macronists regain ground. It could also be that the Government fell due to a vote of no confidence from the right. All scenarios are complex for the president.
