In the last seven years, Brexit has been a drama – some say an unmitigated tragedy – with dystopian moments and touches of science fiction, the (political) violence of a western or a Chicago gangster movie, and Boris Johnson in the role of Al Capone. But now the protagonists, the United Kingdom and the European Union, want to recycle it into a romantic comedy, with a final wedding despite the fights, all happy and eating partridges.
This new film is entitled The Windsor Agreement, and was released yesterday on screens in Great Britain and throughout the EU after a meeting between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to resolve the latest quarrels and seal it all with a kiss, like in Notting Hill or Four Weddings and a Funeral. Even to give the occasion more solemnity and pomp, the European diplomat finished off the job by having tea with King Carlos III in his castle.
The Brexit story so far is effectively one of four weddings, all of which ended badly. Cameron went to the altar believing that the bride would say yes (to her stay in the EU), and she said no; Theresa May tried to consummate the marriage with multiple positions, but she did not succeed; Johnson cuckolded everyone (he promised unionists there would be no internal border, and launched a bill to break the agreements he himself had signed), and it ended badly; and Liz Truss was following the same line as her predecessor, but she didn’t even have time to eat the wedding cake, she went crazy and after 44 days she was sent to the madhouse by the financial markets.
Sunak hopes to change the script, and that his with Brexit is not a funeral, but the final marriage, “the beginning of a new chapter in relations with the EU” (so he proclaimed at a press conference), in the that, with trade and political tensions gone, there is greater defense cooperation to deal with Putin; in energy security and the fight against climate change, that the United Kingdom is admitted to the Horizon program for scientific research (Von der Leyen gave his go-ahead), and that both parties truly behave as friends and allies in a hostile world.
Sunak defines himself as a unionist, British and Brexiter, and from the beginning he campaigned for the exit of Europe. But as soon as he arrived at Downing Street, he adopted a much more conciliatory tone with Brussels and tried to build bridges to resolve the conflicts created by his predecessors, who had seen political capital in confronting and challenging the EU (yesterday he confirmed that Johnson’s law to allow that London unilaterally broke the agreements has been abandoned). He does not. As the banker and technocrat that he is, it was clear to him that, in the midst of the economic crisis and the cost of living, Brexit was a very heavy burden on growth (it is estimated that it has cost four points of GDP), on tax collection (the Treasury has stopped collecting 150,000 million euros), productivity (the lowest in 250 years), investment and trade. A solution was needed, and he believes he has found it. Businessmen are happy.
The technical problems generated by the existence of a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain have been resolved by establishing a green lane for products destined for the province, and another red lane (with more controls and customs declarations) for those destined for to the Republic and the rest of the EU. The British Government will decide the VAT and the level of state aid. Medicines, sausages made in England and pets will move freely within the British market.
On the other hand, more complex and obtuse are the questions that refer to jurisdiction and sovereignty, in which Brussels has made concessions that it denied to all of Sunak’s predecessors. The Stormont Assembly will be able to apply an emergency brake on the application of new community regulations to the province with the support of at least thirty MPs from two parties, and the Northern Irish courts will be the first instance in the adjudication of commercial disputes. But the European Court of Justice will remain the ultimate arbiter as upholder of the single market, a concept that has so far been rejected by unionists and die-hard Eurosceptics in the House of Commons.
Some are likely to continue to do so. Johnson remained silent yesterday as a dead man. The DUP (Ulster Unionist Party) did not enthusiastically bless the marriage, but instead asked for time to study the fine print, and for their lawyers to judge it or not as a relinquishment of sovereignty. But even so Sunak has thrown himself into the pool from the highest diving board, and that is what God wants. Overall, he doesn’t have much to lose either, twenty points in the polls behind Labour, currently favorites to win the elections at the end of next year with an absolute majority.
The British Prime Minister, in a desperate situation (10% inflation, strikes in the public sector…) has considered that his best option was to act as a statesman, solve the problems that his predecessors ran into or even created, and plant to those who disagree. Selling the compromise as “very good for Great Britain, the Northern Irish and the defense of the Union”, a pragmatic solution that will have the support of the majority of the House of Commons (before which he appeared in the afternoon to give the details of the plan). And from there, that Johnson opposes it if he wants to destabilize his leadership, and that the most virulent eurosceptics try to organize a rebellion. See what happens. His message is that common sense has returned to British politics and adults are once again in charge.
The reception offered to Von der Leyen by King Charles III has created a great deal of dust, because the monarch is not supposed to do politics, and in Great Britain there is nothing more political than Brexit. The eurosceptics and unionists of the DUP did not like it, because it seems that it is putting the real stamp on the Windsor agreement, with a very prepared staging, worthy of an Oscar. The official explanation is that it was Palace’s idea, without any paper from Downing Street, and a mere gesture of courtesy to talk about everything.
The film has not ended with yesterday’s kiss. Now it remains to be seen if someone raises their hand in the church and has an objection to the marriage. Or if the DUP joins the party and allows the resumption of the autonomous government of Northern Ireland, led by Sinn Féin, winner of the last elections and which has been blocked for a year. It is the requirement that President Biden sets to visit the province in April to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreements. Now that would be a happy ending.
