This text belongs to ‘Político’, the newsletter that Lola García sends every Thursday to the readers of ‘La Vanguardia’. If you want to receive it in your mailbox, sign up here.
Catalunya will distribute cards on May 12. A campaign begins today whose results also mark Spanish politics. Here are six keys to understand this electoral event:
What will mobilize voters? In the recent Basque electoral campaign there was talk of health and housing. Almost no independence. Also in Catalonia there has been a change in the public conversation towards issues more linked to the management of services and economic challenges, after years discussing almost exclusively about secession. But the phenomenon is not as pronounced as in Euskadi. If the Basques have turned the page on terrorism, for some even too quickly, in Catalonia the echoes of the process still persist. Not in vain the amnesty is still being processed in parliament. Other issues are struggling to surface, but always against the backdrop of the relationship between Catalonia and the Spanish State.
Carles Puigdemont’s main message at the moment is to emphasize that Junts is the most demanding force with Pedro Sánchez, the only one capable of “standing up” to the PSOE. Puigdemont contrasts this firmness with the position of ERC, to which he attributes negotiating weakness before Moncloa and too much ideological collusion on the left flank with the socialists to force votes in Congress. Junts tries to offer its voters a party profile competent in management and emphasizes presenting itself as business friendly. To do this, it has signed a businesswoman as number two on its list, Anna Navarro. After years in which, first Convergència and then Junts, saw their ideological identity blurred with agreements with the CUP or approaches to the commons to support the unilateral referendum, Puigdemont’s party returns to a space more inclined to the right.
Precisely, management is what ERC tries to claim, although issues such as drought or poor educational results hamper its offer. Pere Aragonès would like to participate in an electoral debate that included Puigdemont to demonstrate his supposed ignorance of the reality of the country and government affairs. The Junts leader does not formally reject the debates, but refuses to participate via videoconference, claiming that he cannot set foot in Catalonia and demands to hold them in the south of France, something that the others refuse to do. Regarding the identity aspect, ERC champions the defense of the Catalan language or defends the dialogued path towards independence with a significant trip to Belfast to meet with the Prime Minister of Northern Ireland, Michelle O’Neill. Gone are the promises of self-determination referendums with dates on the calendar.
Transfer of voters. For more than a decade, vote shifts between parties occurred almost exclusively within the two blocs that marked Catalan politics, those in favor of and those opposed to independence. This phenomenon remains largely unchanged. All you have to do is look at the struggle between Junts and ERC. But the transfers are beginning to overcome that wall and are now more transversal. The surveys indicate this, but it can also be seen in some obvious signs in recent weeks. The first was the announcement by former councilor Miquel Sàmper to leave Junts. Although he now remains without political affiliation, Sàmper has established some rapprochement with the leader of the PSC, Salvador Illa. Another case of rapprochement with the socialists comes from the commons. Former minister Manel Castells, who was once proposed for that position by Ada Colau, wrote an article in La Vanguardia a few days ago asking for the vote for Illa. And, finally, Andreu Mas-Colell, who was Minister of Economy with Artur Mas, has given his support to the Republican Aragonès in this pre-campaign. They are symptoms of possible background currents.
The first does not always rule. The PSC has an advantage in the polls, but that does not mean that, if achieved, Salvador Illa will become president of the Generalitat. The first thing that has to happen for the socialists to have options to govern is that the independence bloc does not join. But even then they don’t have it easy. In the PSC they privately admit that they should reach at least 40 deputies to attempt a solo and minority government. If they were below, they would incorporate the commons, although even then they would still not reach an absolute majority. That is, to govern they would need the support of ERC, either by entering the government or from the Parliament. Hence, speculation has already arisen about a probable blockade leading to a repeat election, since it would not be easy for Republicans to support the PSC, even more so if ERC falls behind Junts.
The sleepless independence struggle. Puigdemont considers that overcoming ERC is essential for the Catalan secession project. The former president has always had as a reference the idea of ??a single force with a broad ideological spectrum that would bring together the entire independence movement. For this reason, he launched the idea of ??the Consell per la República, with which he tried to lead that movement. Since these attempts have not worked, he believes that the only way is to prevail over ERC and drag this force to his territory. Obviously, Esquerra wants the opposite. To achieve this, the Republicans try to vindicate their commitment to dialogue to achieve pardons, amnesty and the referendum and accuse Puigdemont of thinking more about him as a person than about the political project.
If the numbers support an independence government, one of the two, Junts or ERC, will be forced to support the other no matter how tense their relations are at this time, since their electorates would not understand anything else. According to the polls, right now it would be Esquerra’s turn to make Puigdemont president.
Red lines and risk of instability. If the independentistas add 68 or more seats, they would have options to govern, but with alliances that can be very unstable, since not only would Junts and ERC have to agree, which in the past have shown their difficulties in governing together, but that probably two very radical forces should also be added to the equation, the anti-capitalists of the CUP and the extreme right-wing independence movement of Aliança Catalana. An explosive mixture.
If the independence movement does not add up and the PSC comes first as the polls indicate, we have already commented that Illa would need the support of ERC to be sworn in as president, since it is almost impossible for Junts to provide it. And it would be a difficult decision for ERC, within which there are sectors more favorable to reaching an agreement with the socialists, but also others who are very suspicious of that possibility.
Consequences in Spanish politics. Pedro Sánchez surprised everyone yesterday with a letter in which he announces that in the coming days he will consider his future as President of the Government. He does so in response to pressure from the PP, which has put her wife, Begoña Gómez, in the spotlight, since she accuses her of influence peddling. The script twist is spectacular and unpredictable. If he throws in the towel and resigns, another person could stand for an investiture to replace him and would need the support of the same majority that supported Sánchez, that is, Basque and Catalan independentists and nationalists. Also in the event that the president decided to face a vote of confidence to strengthen his position before the PP. On Monday we will know the answer.