What does Europe want to be?, asked Vanguardia Dossier in its number 11. Two decades later, the Godó Group’s geopolitics magazine analyzes the challenges posed by the expansion of the European Union from 27 to 36 members: Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the six countries of the Western Balkans. A decision adopted by the European Council held under the Spanish presidency in December as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Political analyst Piotr Buras, one of the fifteen international specialists contributing to this monograph, points out that now “European countries – with the exception of Hungary – see enlargement as an appropriate way to respond to the new geopolitical reality.” This new context requires major reforms in European institutions and in their decision-making and “new common policies,” writes French specialist Sébastien Maillard.
“Community leaders have understood that leaving European neighbors in gray areas is detrimental to their security and stability,” as political analyst Amanda Paul points out. Within this expansionist will, Europe seems destined to draw its geographical and identity borders, as described by former EU ambassador Josep M. Lloveras, with the inclusion of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as candidate countries to join the Union. These three countries join the list of historical applicants such as the Western Balkans (BO-6) –Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia–, which have been in the queue for almost two decades waiting for their turn. .
The paradigm shift brought about by the Russian invasion, as Amanda Paul points out, “has transformed the way in which the EU perceives its eastern neighbourhood”. Ukraine is the spearhead of the new European narrative, and Moldova and Georgia have seized the opportunity created by Kyiv to move towards accession.
Gone is the promise of the “European perspective” promised more than two decades ago to the territories on the right bank of the Adriatic. The former Yugoslav republics and their neighbor Albania are stuck due to identity conflicts and territorial particularities.
“Nowhere in the BO-6 does the EU enjoy as much sympathy as in Albania. However, Albania is lagging behind other candidate countries in terms of its government preparations and adjustments within the framework of an EU membership,” writes researcher Florent Marciacq. Bosnia-Herzegovina, on the contrary, “is witnessing the return of violence and is in the middle of an increasingly dangerous spiral of escalation,” in the face of which community leaders cannot look the other way, describes analyst Adnan Cerimagic. . Kosovo’s accession process encounters two major obstacles, such as “the lack of unity among the 27 members of the EU regarding its (territorial) recognition and the bilateral dispute with Serbia,” as political researcher Engjellushe Morina points out. North Macedonia achieved the status of candidate country in 2005, although since then, as researcher Ognen Vangelov points out, “no date has been set for the start of accession negotiations due to the opposition of Greece.” Montenegro, after its independence in 2006, set two objectives in its foreign policy: to be part of the EU and NATO. The second was achieved in 2017, while the first is being held back by “Russian influence that tries to undermine its integration process,” as specialist Azra Karastanovic says. Finally, Serbia turned towards the EU after the fall of Milosevic in 2000, and twelve years later, it obtained candidate country status. However, “shortly after, the path to the European Union began to go awry,” says analyst Milena Mihajlovic.
If with the accession of Spain and Portugal the cohesion funds were expanded and the single currency was put back on track after the fall of the Berlin Wall that reunified Germany and motivated the first enlargement to the East in 2004, now the defense of Europe is at stake on its eastern flank. The expansion, which will likely be carried out in phases, is presented as a geostrategic investment in security and stability.
