President Joe Biden has reported that US intelligence predicts an Iranian attack on Israel “sooner rather than later” and has sent a message to Tehran: “don’t do it.” The president has said that his administration is “committed to the defense of Israel” in the event of an attack and has warned Iran that “it will not succeed.” The fear of a regional escalation of the conflict between Israel and Palestine, present since October 7 after the Hamas attacks, has increased during the last week, in which the US and Israel have raised their alert level.
Hours earlier, the spokesman for the National Security Council, John Kirby, assured that an attack by Iran, or its allied militias, on Israel is “credible”, without providing more details. “We are monitoring it very, very closely. We still consider that the potential threat from Iran is real, it is certainly credible,” Kirby declared at a press conference. The attack is assumed in Washington as retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria) on April 1, in which three Revolutionary Guard officers died.
Biden himself already said this week that Iran was threatening a “significant attack” on Israel, and his intelligence has confirmed that it could be imminent this weekend. The Israeli war cabinet, led by Beniamin Netanyahu, is already preparing for an unprecedented direct attack on government targets. This was confirmed by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant this Friday, pointing out that Tel Aviv is “shoulder to shoulder” with the US after meeting with the head of the US Central Command, General Michael Kurilla, in Israel.
Last week, Biden spoke directly to Netanyahu about the threat of aggression on Israel. Although it does not anticipate attacks against US troops, the Pentagon is already mobilizing additional assets towards the Middle East with the aim of “reinforcing regional deterrence efforts and increasing the protection of US forces,” as confirmed by CNN. The US also rules out a direct attack against its country.
Furthermore, in recent weeks Washington has been strengthening the air defenses of troops stationed in Iraq and Syria, which have suffered more than a hundred attacks by pro-Iran militias since October 7. The first attack of this type with American fatalities was in January, when three soldiers were killed by a drone attack on the Tower 22 base on Jordan’s triple border with Syria and Iraq.
US intelligence sees a direct attack by Iran as unlikely, although it does not rule it out, but would also see a provocation and escalation in an attack by pro-Iranian militias on Israeli soil. In this way, Tehran would avoid a direct attack for fear of retaliation by a military power like the US, but “it has the pieces on the board ready to carry out an attack” and “it is waiting for the right moment.” , intelligence sources told CNN.
The war in Gaza has already claimed the lives of 35,000 Palestinians and the fear of a regional escalation has caused the price of oil to rise in the last week and alarm bells to go off in the European foreign ministries. Several EU countries have intervened to stop Iran. The Italian Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani, telephoned this Friday his Iranian counterpart, Hosein Amir Abdolahian, to ask that Tehran act “with moderation” in favor of a “reduction of tension.”
