Brussels and Washington trembled when the Italian government of Giuseppe Conte, in 2019, adhered to the new Chinese Silk Road. Italy became the first G7 country to officially join the massive Chinese infrastructure program (Belt and Road Initiative or BRI, according to its name in English), with which the Asian giant is connecting with the main economies of Europe, the East Middle and Africa.
Four years later, the winds have changed. Giuseppe Conte is no longer prime minister, and now who is in power in Italy is the leader of the Brotherhood of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, who is sparing no effort to present herself as a solid ally to the White House and to want to demonstrate her Atlanticist vocation in issues like the war in Ukraine.
When Meloni came to power, one of the questions was whether he was going to back out of this pact that meant 2,500 million euros for Italy, which followed the path of other smaller European countries such as Malta, Portugal, Croatia, Hungary or Greece. On the campaign trail, he publicly said that the decision to join the Silk Road had been a “big mistake.” Now, he has transferred to the United States that he intends to get out of the massive infrastructure plan before the end of the year. According to Bloomberg, Meloni informed the president of the US House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, during his visit to Rome two weeks ago, that although there is still no firm decision on it, his Executive is inclined to resign from the program before March 2024, when it would be automatically renewed if Italy does not make a decision three months before.
However, Meloni is acting very cautiously on this matter. Asked by reporters during a press conference in Prague, the prime minister assured that they had not yet made a decision and that “the debate is open.” The United States is pressing for Rome to take a public position, but Italy is still considering how to do it so as not to provoke punishment from Beijing and especially when to do it, not before the G7 summit in Hiroshima later this week.
“Italy should argue with China for this decision. It is a process that will not be easy and could be unpleasant for the Italian government because foreign policy is something serious, and there could be high costs for Italy”, considers Professor Francesco Sisci, an Italian researcher at Renmin University in China, who warns that China could react with economic retaliation.
“It is difficult to get out of this agreement well because China in recent times has accustomed us to a foreign policy of coup after coup, and this would be seen as disrespectful. Great diplomatic skill would be needed to remember that there are good economic and bilateral relations in a broad framework such as the European Union, and it is necessary to see if this government has it”, agrees Daniele Brigadoi Cologna, a professor at the University of Insubria, who remember that other large countries such as France and Germany have made significant economic agreements without being part of the BRI.
Meloni and Xi Jinping already know each other. They did it in Bali, during the last G20 summit, in November, when the Chinese president invited him to visit Beijing, something he has not done yet. One of the arguments that the Italian Executive could use to avoid opening a break with Beijing would be economic. In the four years that Italy has been part of this initiative, exports to China have not grown, but slightly. If in 2019 they represented 13,000 million euros, in 2022 they amounted to 16,400 million. In contrast, Chinese imports from Italy have gone from 31.7 billion to 57.5 billion. Relations had already cooled significantly during the Mario Draghi period, who, in fact, already prevented China from acquiring strategic companies in the microchip and truck sectors. Meloni is heading in the same direction, and is looking at ways to reduce the influence of China’s Sinochem, which owns 37% of the company, in Pirelli.