On November 5, 160 million Americans will have in their hands the election of the next president of the United States. So much for the theory. The reality, however, is that Joe Biden’s reelection or Donald Trump’s return to the White House will ultimately depend on just a few tens of thousands of voters in a half-dozen states. All other votes will end up at the polls just to make things bigger.

This is what the great North American democracy has and its indirect – and territorially biased – election system, which in 2016 allowed Trump to be proclaimed president despite having obtained three million fewer votes than Democrat Hillary Clinton. From this premise, anything can happen within six months. And the possibility that the egomaniacal New York billionaire returns to the helm of the world’s leading power is not the most far-fetched. In fact, the polls have been giving him an advantage over Biden for months (although the latest polls, such as one by The New York Times published on the 13th, reduce it to just one point: 46% versus 45%)

The names of the hinge states, or swing states (not a priori decided by the Democratic or Republican side) are already well known, and were essential in the outcome of the 2016 and 2020 elections: these are the industrial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – from the so-called Rust belt –, Arizona and Nevada, in the West, and southern Georgia. It was in this last state where Donald Trump and his people exerted maximum pressure to alter the result that gave victory to Joe Biden almost four years ago. The former president is accused of these events, as well as the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 by the Trumpist hordes, for which he is accused of plotting an attempted coup d’état to try to hold on to power.

The specific surveys carried out in these six states – as well as those at the federal level – give a certain advantage to Trump over Biden, who is running for re-election here. Some analysts focus the duel primarily on two of these territories, Michigan and Wisconsin. There, some of the problems that hinder the president’s candidacy may weigh heavily: from the increase in the cost of living – and interest rates – to the disaffection of young people and the Arab community due to his alignment with Israel, through the competition, within the Democratic field itself, from the independent Robert F. Kennedy, son and nephew of the two Kennedys assassinated in the 60s, and conspicuous anti-vaccines. Biden will not have any votes left over and all this could take away quite a few. The only thing missing is the thorny issue of age: more than two-thirds of Americans consider that, at 81, he is too old for office, while only 41% think the same of Trump, who is 78…

The paradox is that the United States economy is doing like a shot with Biden, but hardly anyone recognizes it. After the uncontrolled increase in prices due to the war in Ukraine – as in Europe – inflation has been stopped and reduced to 1.8%, salaries have been rising above prices for a year, economic growth was in 2003 higher than expected (2.5%) and the creation of 2.7 million jobs in the last year has brought unemployment down below 4%. The federal government has mobilized fabulous economic programs to renew infrastructure (1.2 trillion dollars) and boost North American industry, both in the fields of renewable energy and the electric car (740 billion), as well as in semiconductors, computing quantum and AI (280 billion), which are doping activity and attracting foreign companies.

The city of Dalton, in Georgia, has been one of the beneficiaries of the so-called Bidenomics. The 2008 crisis sank its main industry – carpet manufacturing – but it has now raised its head thanks to the expansion of a Korean company’s solar panel production plant. In Dalton, however – as a report from The Times magnificently illustrates – almost no one knows or recognizes that all of this has been possible thanks to aid from the federal government.

The polls reflect this state of opinion. According to an April 21 survey by You Gov for The Economist, 73% of Americans think the state of the economy is poor or mediocre and 53% suspend the Biden administration’s action in this area. On the other hand, the vision of Trump’s four-year term – which economically maintained the trends of the Obama era and ended with serious difficulties due to the covid crisis – is much more benevolent. When his presidency ended, only 39% of Americans thought that the country was better than when it began, while today half believe it. Time – and lack of memory – heals everything.

From James Carville, advisor and strategist to former US President Bill Clinton, is the famous phrase “It’s the economy, stupid!”, with which he highlighted the decision to focus the 1992 electoral campaign on economic issues, bet successful that would take his pupil to the White House. Repeated and reinterpreted a thousand times, it does not seem that this slogan is going to be of any use to Biden this time. His remarkable service record is under the radar. Is it the economy? Well not always. And, in any case, when it is, the factual reality does not matter as much as the subjective perception of citizens. Wrong or not.