The long-announced offensive against Rafah, the only major city in Gaza left without the presence of Israeli troops, already has a date. Israel has given Hamas until the start of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that this year begins on March 10, to release the remaining hostages, otherwise it will extend its ground attack towards the southern city of Gaza, in where at least 1.5 million displaced Palestinians have sought refuge.
“The world should know, and Hamas leaders should know: if our hostages are not home by Ramadan, fighting will continue everywhere, including the Rafah area,” said Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli war cabinet and a former military chief of staff, at a conference of American Jewish leaders on Sunday in Jerusalem, according to Agence France Presse.
Gantz added that the offensive will be carried out in a coordinated manner and in conversation with the Americans and Egyptians to facilitate the evacuation and “minimize civilian casualties as much as possible.” But it remains unclear where people can safely relocate in the besieged Gaza Strip, as Egypt fortifies the crossing connecting the country to Rafah to prevent a mass evacuation of Palestinians into its territory.
Israel expects to continue large-scale military operations in Gaza for another six to eight weeks as it prepares to mount the ground invasion toward Rafah, four officials familiar with the strategy confirmed to Reuters.
The military leadership believes it can significantly damage Hamas’ remaining capabilities in that time, paving the way for a shift to a lower-intensity phase of targeted airstrikes and special forces operations, according to Reuters sources.
There is little chance that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will heed international criticism and calls and call off a ground attack on Rafah, Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and negotiator in the first and second intifadas, or Palestinian uprisings, told Reuters. in the 1980s and 2000s. “Rafah is the last bastion of Hamas control and there are still battalions in Rafah that Israel must dismantle to achieve its objectives in this war,” he added. “There were 24 regional battalions in Gaza; we have dismantled 18 of them,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at a press conference on Friday. “Now Rafah is Hamas’ next center of gravity,” he added.
According to the Islamist group, the total victory promised by Netanyahu will not be quick or easy. A Qatar-based Hamas official told Reuters the group estimated it had lost 6,000 fighters during the more than months-long conflict, half of the 12,000 Israel says it has killed.
Gaza’s ruling group can continue fighting and is prepared for a long war in Rafah and Gaza, added the official, who requested anonymity. “Netanyahu’s options are difficult and so are ours. He can occupy Gaza, but Hamas is still standing and fighting. He has not achieved his objectives of killing Hamas leaders or annihilating Hamas,” he concluded.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have not explained how they will move more than a million people inside the ruins of the enclave. Washington is skeptical that Israel has made sufficient preparations for a safe civilian evacuation, several officials familiar with talks between the two governments said. Biden said Friday that he did not expect a “massive” Israeli ground invasion to happen soon.
Hamas sparked the conflict on October 7 last year, when its fighters stormed from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel. They killed 1,200 people and took 253 hostages. The surprise attack sparked a massive retaliatory Israeli bombing and ground invasion that has killed more than 28,000 Palestinians.
Much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble by Israel. Fighting continues in the southern city of Khan Yunis, with sporadic clashes still occurring in supposedly cleared areas of the north. Bombs fall throughout the enclave, including areas that the Israeli army designated as safe.
More than 85% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been left homeless. Most of the displaced have sought refuge in Rafah, which before the war had a population of around 300,000 people (today it is more than 1.5 million). “There is no empty space in Rafah. Does the world know that? There will be carnage if the tanks come in,” Emad Joudat, 55, who fled there with his family at the start of the war from Gaza City, told Reuters. , where he ran a furniture business.
