In a supermarket on Comte d’Urgell street, Marisol (71 years old) buys the ingredients to prepare her mother’s cupcake recipe. She eggs, flour, sugar, lemon and olive oil. “But this time I’m going to have to replace it with sunflower oil, because with the prices there are, it’s not enough to throw out the good one,” she laments. Although it may seem like an anecdotal fact, more and more families are reducing their consumption of olive oil or are forced to juggle so as not to remove it from their tables.
A bottle of extra virgin exceeds 10 euros in some supermarkets, which is three euros more than at the beginning of the summer and double that of a year ago. The price of liquid gold continues to rise, it costs the consumer 38.8% more than in 2022 according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), and if the drought of recent months persists, this situation will continue and tighten even more to consumers and farmers.
“I am reluctant to give up olive oil, because of its properties and the relevance it has in our kitchen,” says Manuel Romero, a man from Barcelona who goes shopping at the Sant Antoni market. “At home we have cut back a little on fruit or fish to balance,” says Noemí at the gates of the same market. Like them, many consumers respond that they prefer to readjust their expenses —even remove some products from their basket— rather than remove the quintessential vegetable fat of the Mediterranean diet from their kitchens.
Young people and the elderly are the most vulnerable to the price escalation. Like Marisol, Júlia, a young Physiotherapy student from Girona, has “drastically” reduced her consumption of olive oil and has “completely” eliminated virgin and extra virgin oil from her diet. “Now I mainly use sunflower, for some coconut recipes and the olive one ‘dry’ from time to time,” she explains. Families that are in a situation of vulnerability have also been pushed to further reduce the consumption of this product.
“There are no objective reasons to believe that the price will drop, it will depend on the next harvest,” says Cristóbal Cano, deputy secretary general of UPA (Union of Small Farmers and Ranchers) and head of the organization’s Olivar, despite not wanting to make forecasts. The agricultural sector has noticed the drop in consumption and some fear that the behavior of prices will not only cause consumers to switch to other, cheaper oils, such as sunflower, coconut, soybean or rapeseed oil, but also that the food industry or restoration take the same path.
Producers agree on the cause of the current high prices. “The reason is unique and clear, a severe drought that we have been suffering for more than two years, a consequence of the climate crisis,” says Cano. To this is added an environment of very high temperatures that has affected a key phase of the crop, such as the flowering of the olive tree. These circumstances suggest a very bad campaign, following the current disastrous one, “the worst of the century”. The 2022/2023 campaign, according to official data, started with stocks of around 450,000 tons, slightly below the average. It has been marked by low rainfall and rising costs, and has resulted in a production of 660,000 tons. To put these figures into perspective, the average harvest in Spain is usually between 1.3 and 1.4 million.
The forecasts for the next campaign are similar according to the UPA representative, although many farmers are not so positive. However, the harvest that will start in October starts with the disadvantage of not having stocks like last year, which is why some believe that the price could increase a little more due to the shortage of product.
The expectations are even worse in Catalonia. If last season the harvest decreased by 50%, it is estimated that this year it will fall to half that of the past, that is, a quarter of what would be harvested in a normal season (from an average of 34,000 tons to 7,000 the next). . “If it doesn’t rain before autumn, the figures could be lower,” warns Jordi Pascual, head of oil for the Unió de Pagesos. The precipitations of these last days are not enough to reverse this scenario.
In the Catalan territory they have also noticed the drop in consumption, especially of the highest quality oils. “When the price increases, the final consumer looks for other cheaper alternatives, such as seed oils or lower categories,” explains Pascual. “If the extra virgin is replaced by a refined one, this increases in price because it is more in demand, and the situation arises that a high-quality oil costs the same as a refined one,” he emphasizes.
The marketing figures, despite the difficulties, are being good. Sales at the end of July, the tenth month of the campaign (starts from October 1 to September 30), stood at 896,000 tons, an average of almost 90,000 tons per month. “We cannot achieve the results of other years because production is much lower, but all the oil that is produced is sold,” says Cano. In fact, some oil mills have run out of stock. “Sales have increased a lot in recent months, but because consumers fear running out of oil or that it will become more expensive, they buy more,” says Enric Dalmau, president of the DOP Les Garrigues.
But a good level of sales does not imply, “at all”, benefits. “The market price is an intangible reality for farmers, because we have such a small harvest that the accounts don’t come out,” argues Cano. “There are people who criticize the primary sector and accuse us of being speculators: quite the opposite, we are as hurt as the consumer,” adds Pascual. From the Unió de Pagesos they consider it necessary, however, to reflect on the fair price of olive oil. “For many years it has been sold below the cost of production and the farmer didn’t make a living from it,” he says. He also warns that if this situation is not reversed, thousands of hectares of olive groves will be abandoned, which will lead to “less production and higher prices.”
Experts warn that the heat and the scarcity of water will increase in the coming years, something that the sector fears, although they maintain the hope that rainfall will return to normal parameters. This scenario has a worldwide impact. The International Olive Council points out that global production could fall by 20% this year, standing at 2.7 million cubic meters and with a shortage of half a million tons. Countries like Turkey have banned bulk olive oil exports until October 31 to guarantee supplies.
The incidence is much higher in countries like Spain, responsible for almost 30% of world production according to this organization and where olive oil is consumed daily (11.4 kilos per inhabitant each year). A drop in exports here is expected due to low production and imports are expected to be less than 150,000 tonnes, since potential importers in the Mediterranean basin have suffered the same problems. “The forecast production in Catalonia does not even cover domestic consumption,” says Pascual, and a low level of imports can also push prices up. In UPA they want everything to return to normal, “because Spanish oil is very attractive in foreign markets and there is a great margin for growth.”
For now, the majority of consumers will continue to juggle so as not to give up one of the most precious products of our gastronomy, even if for this reason the oil is reused for frying “more times than usual”, explains María González, or other fats are consumed. “promptly”. The last monthly report on oil consumption prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture, on April, already indicated this dynamic. The purchase of oil increased by 33.6% in Spanish households, but olive oil lost presence compared to others such as sunflower oil: consumption of the former increased by 9.6%, compared to 135.7% for the latter.
Eliminating olive oil from our diet is not a possible alternative, according to the doctor and nutritionist Magda Carlas. “This type of oil has very beneficial properties for cardiovascular health, the prevention of type 2 diabetes, cholesterol, and hypertension, among many other known attributes,” she explains. For this reason, the expert recommends not removing this product from our daily lives, “which is one of the pillars of the Mediterranean diet.” In any case, if your pocket does not allow it, Carlas suggests reducing your consumption but, in that case, always eat it raw and buy the highest quality, “if possible the extra virgin”. Even so, the nutritionist assures that sunflower oil, nut oil or corn oil can be good alternatives if consumed raw and advises avoiding coconut or palm oil.
To face the challenges of the next campaigns, the person in charge of UPA insists that price stability is needed, for this reason he appeals to the administrations to implement regulation mechanisms. “The Law of the Food Chain is key in this sense,” he points out, and proposes the creation of observatories for production costs and commercial margins. Pascual also points to a change in the management of water policies, “to minimize the waste of water and encourage its reuse for agriculture.” “We cannot appeal to the rain as the only solution,” concludes Cano.
