Polls anticipate a significant rise in far-right parties in the European elections in June. They will be around 25% of the votes because the news benefits them. The electorate is tired of permanent crises and disappointed with the response of its leaders.
The strategy of the center-left and center-right parties has been to adopt proposals from the radical right, especially on immigration and climate change. However, in this way they have not managed to preserve their electoral base or curb the enthusiasm aroused by the populists.
If these parties base their campaign on the issues that most mobilize the extreme right, they will have nothing to do. If they prioritize immigration, climate change or the war in Ukraine, they will facilitate the triumph of populism, according to the latest study by the European Center for Foreign Relations.
Based on this evidence, its authors, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, have drawn up a roadmap to prevent the next European Parliament from being held hostage by anti-Europeans. They believe that it is possible to refute the polls if the candidates stop rhetorical abstractions and propose pragmatic solutions to the socioeconomic problems, which are the ones that most concern the electorate.
Of all the crises that have been dumped on the shoulders of European citizens in recent years, none is more important to them than the economic one. Inflation that grows above salaries has triggered inequality and the perception that politicians, when they talk about the transition to a green economy, are not concerned that gas and electricity costs will skyrocket. Most Europeans, for example, prefer that the EU delay the goal of zero emissions by a few years in exchange for cheaper energy.
The feeling of vulnerability and uncertainty about the solidity of the welfare state worsened during the pandemic and has not subsided. The extreme right exploits it with the help of immigration chaos.
This seems to be the star issue of the campaign, but not because it is a priority for Europeans, but, as Krastev and Leonard claim, “because the extreme right has turned it into a symbol of the failures of the EU.”
In addition to going to the extreme on the migration issue, moderate leaders want to boast about the successes of an EU that has overcome the pandemic, helps Ukraine, combats the climate crisis and precariousness.
The study, however, shows that it will be a mistake to do so. These are the issues that most mobilize the extreme right. The majority of Europeans also believe that they were not managed well.
Successes are always taken for granted. They are not valued. What endures, as Krastev and Leonard explain, “is the resentment of the skeptics.” This is what most shapes political identities today.
We must not insist on what has been done well, we must tone down the tone on immigration and not talk much about Ukraine.
The study indicates that Ukraine mobilizes the extreme right. Total commitment to its defense comes at a cost that many voters believe is excessive. Only one in ten Europeans also believes that it will help Ukraine win the war.
Much better than beating the drums of war against Russia, Krastev and Leonard propose arguing that Europe needs to fend for itself. The threat that a Trump in the White House will abandon her to her fate can mobilize the vote of pro-Europeans much more than the desire to bring down Putin.
Krastev and Leonard believe that the best way to defeat the extreme right is not to provoke it, and to do so, candidates must talk less about Putin and more about issues very close to voters.
The vast majority of undecided people, for example, are women (71% in Spain) and the issues that concern them most are abortion, gender violence, family conciliation and the treatment of minorities.
A close and pragmatic campaign, with more solutions than threats, will mobilize the voters that now, as in 2019, Europe needs to move forward.
