Pedro Sánchez’s offer to the independence movement is more self-government compared to the referendum and more financial capacity compared to a fiscal pact for Catalonia. Political and financial autonomy are inherent, so, apart from the amnesty law and the “misunderstandings” between the Government and Junts, the key to the legislature is the reform of the financing system and is managed by the new first vice president. María Jesús Montero to the tune that most interests the PSOE.
Since his inauguration, Sánchez has made it clear that the uniqueness for Catalonia is in the reunion folder, not in the box. Junts and ERC have three negotiating tables but they do not present to Sánchez the dichotomy “the box or the Government.” The PSOE is clear about it. The distribution of resources will be addressed with all communities; The reduction of the Generalitat’s debt linked to ERC will be extended to all the autonomies – the formula is as green as the financing; and the transfer of the minimum vital income or the Cercanías trains is made available to whoever claims it.
Fair financing is the “most urgent” thing, admits the convergent soul of Junts, although the focus remains on the amnesty, the mediator and the parliamentary departments of the PSOE. And, from the Palau de la Generalitat, ERC tries to position itself in the trenches of a battle for resources that can start as a bilateral negotiation in compliance with the pacts and end in multilateral sudoku, as Pedro Solbes defined it in 2009.
It is evident that the financing law of the autonomies has never been modified without the leadership of Catalonia, but leadership is one thing and the distribution of funds is another. Nor has it ever been done outside the party that holds the presidency of the Generalitat. It is a negotiation between governments. So who has the chance to win, or lose, on the independence front is Pere Aragonès.
The reforms of 1993, 1996, 2001 and 2009 bear the seal of CiU. Although the current system was drawn by Pedro Solbes and Antoni Castells, it responds to the pact of the Statute of Artur Mas and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. It is the exception. Placing each adjustment on the calendar, it is concluded that the financing has served to satisfy temporary needs arising from elections. The current model has been out of date for seven years waiting for that situation. Has it arrived or is it inevitable?
Two circumstances have marked all the negotiations: the approval of the budgets and the position of Catalonia. In 2012, Mas’s demand from Mariano Rajoy for a fiscal pact turned into an independence process; Between 2014 and 2017, Cristóbal Montoro first hid behind the fact that “there was no cake” to distribute and, later, he left the experts’ report in the drawer, with as many dissenting votes as there were members of the commission.
Five general elections and a motion of censure in the last eight years are not the setting for a high-voltage negotiation. Last legislature, Vice President Montero presented an offer marked by the adjusted population that was rejected. The most difficult still comes with the current electoral cycle: eleven communities in the hands of the PP and the demands, separately, of ERC and Junts.
Montero now faces, reinforced as number two of the Government and the PSOE, what she calls a “multilateral debate” with the cards marked. Sánchez’s executive has taken steps towards fiscal harmonization and avoiding dumping encouraged by the Community of Madrid. Terminology is important. Harmonization does not go well with the singularity that President Aragonès demands.
On the other hand, demanding compliance with the criterion of ordinality, introduced in the Statute and which the ruling of the Constitutional Court did not vary, can displace the criterion of solidarity in the redistribution of wealth and fuel classic grievances. And in parallel to territorial interests, a new plebiscitary electoral sprint for the PP and the independence movement to the Catalans. Aragonès wants to avoid the “independence for resources” exchange, but even Junts has understood that, in the absence of forces and a referendum, with more economic capacity and punctual trains, the meantime is better.
