The strong demand for metals to face the energy transition presents a double paradox in Europe. The EU-27 barely has 5% of its own resources to respond to this great challenge and, on the other hand, the recycling levels of these materials are very insufficient. There is a lack of policies to recover resources that are now wasted; If they are not adopted, the growth in demand for new resources and conflicts over extraction will increase. The image of these sub-Saharan workers walking the streets, dragging carts and collecting waste metals to turn them into scrap metal shows that urban mining is a great source for obtaining these resources; but it symbolizes the lack of recognition of this task (now outside any regulated organization) and reveals that the administrations do not pay due attention to selective collection and correct reuse of all those metals, which will end up in a foundry.
The energy transition is on track to replace the current dependence on fossil fuels with critical or strategic minerals. For this reason, a recent Friends of the Earth report highlights that the best way to face the increase in demand for minerals – and overcome these contradictions – is to design a transition that emphasizes savings measures. According to this study, the future demand in Spain for metals associated with the energy transition will be driven above all by the electric vehicle. These technologies will be responsible for 54% to 58% of the accumulated demand between 2020 and 2050 for aluminum and copper, and 73% to 92% of the materials associated with batteries, such as manganese, cobalt, nickel and lithium. In addition, it is estimated that it will be responsible for 79% of the accumulated demand for rare earths (dysprosium and neodymium, used in engines).
Given that electric mobility will be the main demanding source of raw materials, “this is the most vulnerable area to possible future supply problems that may arise,” explains researcher Alicia Valero, who has coordinated this study from the Institute of Mixed Research Circe (University of Zaragoza). For its part, wind power needs 16% of rare earths, power lines will absorb between 10% and 11% of copper and aluminum, and electrical and electronic devices would capture up to 35% of the total demand for gold.
The impacts of mineral extraction can be “severe and often irreversible”, which is why Valero sees it necessary to adopt measures to reduce demand (including recycling measures and promoting more durable products).
The work coordinated by Valero indicates that by applying ambitious metal collection and recycling rates, it would be possible to cover 57% of the demand between 2020 and 2050 in a transition scenario. But this figure would increase to 67% by lengthening the life of technological products (making them more durable) and applying prevention policies. In a scenario in which demand decreases and recycling increases, the extraction of minerals used in these technologies would be reduced by half (up to 49%).
The solutions that involve a greater reduction in mining extraction are those that limit the size of the batteries in electric passenger cars, those that reduce this fleet of vehicles and a shift towards public transport. Extending the useful life of the product, accelerating recycling, having smaller batteries and more rational mobility would allow reductions in first extraction of between 11% and 16% for the different metals analyzed. With the plans in place by the Government for 2050, the metals supplied would occupy two cargo ships while the rock extracted to obtain it would be equivalent to 636 cargo ships. “If recycling does not improve, that figure will rise to 1,264 vessels,” the report says. With the alternatives of a more ecological economy, they would be reduced to 136 cargo ships.
