What is given cannot be taken, say Brexiteers. It is never too late to apologize and back down, respond to those who believe that the decision to leave the European Union has been a shot in the foot, one of the biggest mistakes in British history along with the Suez debacle. In politics there is no repentance –Santiago Carrillo affirmed–, simply one is right or wrong. Regret is outdated, the only consolation is pleasure, Oscar Wilde opined.
In any case, the truth is that now, seven years after the referendum, the majority of Britons regret Brexit, even if it is of no use to them. 57% admit that it was a mistake and 51% say that, if asked again, they would vote to reverse the decision and humbly ask the EU for the return of the prodigal son (another thing is that the Twenty-seven were willing, and less even with the advantages that the United Kingdom had in 2016, such as not being in the euro, nor in Schengen, and the return of the agricultural check).
Despite this, both Brexit and Regrexit – which in Spanish sounds like “return” and in English “repentance” ( regret ) – are taboo words in Great Britain. In the United States, Trump is even in the soup (almost nothing else is talked about), but here the return to Europe is a taboo subject, as if politicians and even families had subscribed to a kind of Sicilian omertà. The conservatives do not want to know anything, because it has been an unmitigated disaster. Neither did Labour, because between a quarter and a third of their voters were inclined to jump ship with the EU, and the party needs them to regain power. And as for the people, they think it is too early to reverse a democratic decision, and prefer not to reopen wounds that pitted parents against children and friends against friends, and has even given rise to dating apps of people with similar political ideas. What worries the most is the cost of living, inflation and the deterioration of public health.
Is there then any chance that the UK will apply to return to the EU in the foreseeable future? “It depends on what you consider to be,” says analyst Tracey Simon. Not in ten years, the minimum would be sixteen or seventeen. Labor will most likely win the next election. A referendum can be ruled out, because it will not be part of your platform. But he is likely to pave the way for raising the issue if things go well for him and he wins a second term (he has already hinted at giving European citizens the vote). If it came out yes, the clock would start ticking off and, in the most optimistic scenario, even on the fast track, it would be a decade-long process until the return became a reality.
Which Europe this country would return to is another question, because it is possible that Ukraine, Serbia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and even Turkey were then part of the EU, or were completing accession procedures. But it is also not unreasonable that in 2040 both the continental partners and the British themselves are more concerned about immigration, climate disaster and other pressing problems than about reversing Brexit. Especially when it seems that it has served as a vaccine, and has made the French, Italians and Dutch see the ears of the wolf and the prospect of a Frexit and an Italiexit is diluted.
Not surprisingly, 57% of people (and 75% of 18-24 year olds) say that slamming the EU door was the wrong decision. Among its consequences are a loss of four points of GDP and 650 million euros in foreign investments that have ceased to be made, the highest inflation in the G-7 countries (7.9%), and an additional cost accumulated food of 6,000 million euros since 2020.
The experts always said that abandoning the largest single market in the world was economically absurd, and it has been proven so. Bilateral trade between the United Kingdom and the EU (about 650,000 million euros a year) has suffered a fall of 25% in both directions. The bureaucracy to export and import is overwhelming, and the shipment of each shipment – ??regardless of its weight and volume – costs 41 pounds (about 46 euros), an amount that large companies can afford but kills small ones. The end of freedom of movement has not reduced immigration, quite the contrary (606,000 people last year, the majority from former Commonwealth colonies). But the absence of young Europeans working in the hospitality industry and the countryside has created a labor hole in those sectors. British students have been excluded from Erasmus scholarships and scientists from the Horizon programme. Musical groups have enormous problems performing on the continent because tours frequently exceed the maximum number of days allowed to stay without a work permit and because of the obstacles to travel on a coach with a license plate in this country.
The credentials of professionals such as accountants, doctors and lawyers are not automatically recognized in Europe, and they have to undergo examinations and have their qualifications validated in order to work. Tourism has not recovered pre-Brexit levels, by suppressing the 20% VAT refund to foreign visitors for purchases in this country, no matter how much department stores like Harrods have complained. To purchase luxury products, Paris or Barcelona have become more profitable options.
If Labor Keir Starmer is the next prime minister, he will be in charge of the review of the Brexit agreements scheduled for 2025. And although his official position is not to even contemplate a return to the single market or the customs union, Eurosceptics are convinced that it will prepare the ground for this, blaming the economic problems on leaving the EU and proceeding to a progressive regulatory alignment, which from the beginning was the proposal of Brussels to minimize the damage of divorce (London , under pressure from businessmen, has just given up issuing its version of the CE marking, the certificate that guarantees that products sold within the eurozone meet health and safety requirements). That convergence would alleviate the decline of the City, which has seen thousands of jobs and a billion and a half euros flee to Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Milan due to a lack of equivalence in financial services.
It is said that it is better to regret having done something than not having done it, and that it is never too late to back down. “I have not come to call the just, but sinners to repent” (Gospel according to Saint Luke). The British already recognize the error of Brexit and are paying the penance. But another thing is that they are willing to do something about it. Only for 10% is it a priority issue.
