In 24 hours Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo have passed through Barcelona. A good result in Catalonia has always been decisive in winning the Moncloa. But if the Catalans join the wave of the PP, it is going to reach very notable dimensions. The transformation of CiU into Junts has left a sector of the electorate orphaned, according to the popular ones. A voter of the center right, of order, frustrated with the process, in which both the PP and the PSC want to fish.
Catalonia and the Basque Country have traditionally been hostile territories to the PP, which has only achieved notable increases in those positions at specific times. Its difficulty to take root among Catalans and Basques was argued by the existence of two nationalist center-right parties, the PNV and CiU. The Catalan case is more worrying for the PP, since it is the second most populous community, after Andalusia, before a socialist granary and now much more porous to the popular ones. The question is: which party now best represents the center right in Catalonia?
Feijóo believes that, without CiU, there is ground to cover. Pujolismo seduced the middle classes for almost 40 years. But the independence process turned everything upside down and the ideological axis was subordinated to the nationalist one, to such an extent that Convergència ended up allying with an anti-system party like the CUP, in addition to adopting the creation and increase in taxes due to the scarcity of public resources caused by The financial crisis.
Feijóo hopes to surpass the eight seats that the polls give him in this community. He could even get representation from Girona, where the PP finds it very difficult to enter. They would be the same ones that José María Aznar obtained when he arrived at Moncloa and had to negotiate the support of CiU. Those eight seats (698,000 votes) were achieved with Aleix Vidal-Quadras in Catalonia and his harsh speech against Catalan nationalism, in the style that Ciudadanos would later adopt. With a more moderate story and, above all, an investment policy in Catalonia, Aznar would raise the bar in the 2000 elections.
On that occasion, the PP won twelve seats in Catalonia (763,000 votes) and it was Josep Piqué who led that spectacular rise. Ana Botella confessed that that election night she knew that her husband had achieved an absolute majority when they were told the result in Catalonia. Mariano Rajoy would only approach her again in 2011, already in the middle of the financial crisis and with Alicia Sánchez-Camacho in the Catalan PP (715,800 votes and 11 deputies).
Feijóo expects a good result in Catalonia that will catapult him to Moncloa and, from there, rebuild the game in the community, then trying to attract civil society figures to polish his project.
It is difficult to measure the support for the right in Catalonia. Ciudadanos, when he defined himself as a liberal, won regional elections, but it is clear that his growth was a reaction to the rise of independence and not so much to the ideology of his program. On 23-J it will also be necessary to add the votes of Vox to those of the PP in the bag on the right. It could be added that the voter pursued by the PDECat-Espai CiU is also located in the center right, although his vision of the national question is different. With Junts everything is more confusing. In recent times it has accentuated its center-right discourse, but the ups and downs of recent years and the radicalism for independence have blurred the profile of the order party of the old Convergència.
So much so that even ERC has believed that it could occupy that space that is perceived as an orphan with nods to the economic elites and with the signing of figures from the convergent field such as Minister Carles Campuzano. The PSC is also trying to establish itself in a central location to inherit Convergència votes dissatisfied with the procés. Salvador Illa agrees with whoever is necessary (except with Vox), but does not spare the gestures towards Junts.
To take advantage of the PP of the ideological reluctance of Junts, Feijóo talks above all about the economy when he visits Catalonia, although he keeps his promise to recover the crime of sedition, eliminate the dialogue table between the Catalan and central governments, and force the Generalitat to comply with the application of 25% Spanish in schools. All of them fronts that guarantee a clash with the ERC Executive.
For this reason, Sánchez has insistently warned in recent days that a PP government would mean a return to political and social tension in Catalonia.
