Exports and investment have allowed the Spanish economy to grow by 0.5% in the first quarter of the year. In this way, after a very flat end to 2022, with a GDP that only grew two tenths in each of the last two quarters, the pace has accelerated at the beginning of 2023.
The Ministry of Economy considers that with these data, the level of GDP prior to the pandemic has practically been reached. “Economic growth and job creation have accelerated in the first quarter of the year and we have practically recovered the level of GDP from the pre-pandemic, and employment is clearly above it”, stated the First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Nadia Calvino.
Analysts have already highlighted in recent weeks that various indicators referring to economic activity in the first quarter were showing more positive than expected. They refer to affiliation to Social Security and PMI indices, which are used to measure the confidence of companies in the economic situation, among others.
Last year the economy closed with excellent global growth of 5.5%, although going from more to less, which left economic activity reduced to a minimum at the end of the year. The year ended with weakened consumption and investment, and only public consumption growing.
In the coming months, economic activity will depend on the strength of two factors that will act in the opposite direction. On the one hand, the moderation of inflation, the de-escalation of energy prices, the normalization of tourism and a better execution of European funds play in their favour. On the other hand, the rise in interest rates and the latest tensions in the financial markets will act as a brake.
In any case, all the organizations are revising their forecasts for the whole of the year upwards. One of the last was the Bank of Spain, which in March raised it to 1.6%. Up to now, the Spanish government maintains a growth forecast of 2.1%, but today it is expected to update this figure when it presents the stability program that it will present in Brussels. In this sense, yesterday he already announced an acceleration of the fiscal path, to reduce the deficit to 3% in 2024, one year earlier than previously planned.
