The year 2023 was the first or second warmest year in Europe as a whole since records began (depending on whether Greenland data is taken into account). The average temperature in the Old Continent last year was 1ºC higher than the 1991-2020 average, according to the report on the state of the climate in Europe from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the EU Copernicus program. But the most relevant thing about the study is that, while the entire planet registers a temperature rise of 1.4ºC compared to pre-industrial times, in Europe the rise is 2.6ºC. Why this difference?
Since the 1980s, Europe has been warming twice as much as the global average. It is the continent that most rapidly experiences this process. This is mainly due to the greater proportion of European land in the Arctic, the fastest warming region on Earth (3ºC since the 1970s).
Europe is generally located at rather high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and, in addition, part of the continent includes territory in the Arctic Circle. “As the poles are the area that warms the most on the planet, when an average of temperatures is taken in Europe, which includes part of the Arctic, the result is that temperatures rise more…” says Joaquín Muñoz, responsible for climate monitoring by Copernicus satellites.
Another factor that affects is the changes in atmospheric circulation, which favor the onset of more frequent heat waves in summer. This ocean circulation brings warm waters to the European coasts, and that makes them relatively warmer than those of other oceans. “We have relatively mild winters when at equivalent latitudes in North America the winters are much colder.”
The three warmest years since records exist have occurred since 2020, and the ten warmest years have occurred since 2007.
The Copernicus report for 2023 indicates that almost all regions in Europe recorded above-average temperatures almost all year round, except Scandinavia, Iceland and Greenland. It was the second warmest autumn and November was measured at 6ºC above average in eastern Europe and the Arctic.
And what explains why 2023 has set new records? The main reason is the increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, the warming caused by man in the burning of fossil fuels, according to Joaquín Muñoz. Again in 2023 there were records in carbon dioxide and methane emissions.
But, in addition, high temperatures in the oceans have contributed, as well as natural variability related to El Niño, a cyclical warming phenomenon that begins in the equatorial Pacific with repercussions throughout the planet, although in Europe its influence is more weakened.
Likewise, “a small contribution from the solar cycle, which is now at a peak,” has been detected.
And a fourth explanation is a reduction in aerosols in the atmosphere (which reflect solar radiation), due to a decrease in sulfur dioxide pollution in shipping.
The big news in 2023 has been the high ocean temperatures, “the highest since records began,” says the report. In June, the Atlantic (west of Ireland and around Great Britain) was measured 5ºC above average, and in June and August this threshold was exceeded in areas of the Mediterranean. El Niño and the greater incidence of radiation would be the main causes.
One effect has been the proliferation of heat waves. In Europe, 23 of the last 30 most severe heat waves have occurred since 2000. And in 2023, a record number of days with “extreme heat stress” was reached, which is equivalent to a temperature that is perceived as higher at 46°C.
13% of the continent and 41% of southern Europe experienced “strong”, “very strong” or “extreme” heat stress on July 23.
Over the last 20 years, heat-related mortality has increased by around 30%, and heat-related deaths are estimated to have increased in 94% of the European regions observed.
The report confirms that the “frequency and severity of extreme events are increasing” in Europe. Precipitation (7% above average) and floods (in Italy, Sweden or Slovenia…) had the reverse of a drier than average climate in the countries located west of the Black Sea and in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, where dry conditions occurred from February to April.
Extreme weather events raised river flows exceptionally due to storms between October and December. According to preliminary estimates, in 2023, 63 lives will be lost in Europe in events caused by storms, 44 due to floods and another 44 due to forest fires. The floods are estimated to have affected 1.6 million people.
“The climate crisis is the great challenge of our generation. The cost of acting may be high, but the cost of not acting is much higher,” says Celeste Saulo, director general of the WMO. Economic losses related to weather and climate exceeded €13.4 billion, and 81% were due to flooding.
“In 2023, Europe witnessed the largest forest fire ever recorded and was one of the wettest years, with severe marine heatwaves and widespread devastating flooding,” summarizes Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s Copernicus climate service. “Temperatures continue to rise, making our data increasingly vital to prepare for the effects of climate change,” he concludes.
And it was a year of exceptional melting in the glaciers of the European Alps. The number of snow days in the Old Continent was below average, especially in central Europe and the Alps during winter and spring. This, together with high summer temperatures, has contributed to a net loss of ice from glaciers across Europe. In the Alps that loss was 10% of the volume they had left in 2022 and 2023.
Meanwhile, the Copernicus seasonal forecast indicates that we are now more likely to have a summer with temperatures above normal for that time of year than not to be. “But this should not be something that should surprise us, since in the current scenario the trend towards an increase in temperatures predominates,” says the Copernicus expert.
“If we consider that the main factor in increasing temperatures is the concentration of greenhouse gases, for this reason we would have an even hotter summer in 2024; But we must take into account that El Niño and other factors have had an impact in 2023, so we cannot guarantee that this will be the case. A transition towards a neutral state or towards La Niña cannot guarantee that temperatures will decrease.”
