As Los Angeles wraps up a devastating fire season, a glimmer of hope approaches in the form of upcoming rain. While this rainfall may provide some relief, experts caution that it may not be enough to fully extinguish the flames that have ravaged the county. The National Weather Service has forecasted a minor to moderate rain event in Los Angeles and Ventura counties next week, with amounts ranging from a quarter of an inch to an inch of rain. However, to truly end the fire season, a more substantial downpour of 2 inches for lower elevations and 4 inches for mountain areas is needed.
Leading weather service meteorologist Lisa Phillips emphasizes the importance of adequate rainfall to combat the persistent fire danger. The initial storm over the weekend brought some relief, with rainfall totals ranging from half an inch to an inch across the county. However, it fell short of the amount required to fully mitigate the fire risk. The upcoming rains are expected to moisten vegetation and grass, reducing the immediate danger. Nevertheless, if dry winds return and rainfall remains sporadic, the vegetation can quickly dry out, escalating the wildfire risk once more.
Phillips suggests that a third rain event may be necessary to reach the precipitation levels needed to definitively end the fire season. However, the unpredictability of weather systems leaves uncertainty hanging in the balance. While the rain is a welcomed sight, it also poses new challenges, such as the risk of mudslides and flooding in areas impacted by recent fires. The aftermath of fires, like the Eaton and Palisades blazes, creates a landscape vulnerable to these natural disasters due to soil water-repellency caused by intense heat and the absence of vegetation roots to stabilize the ground.
Despite the potential risks of heavy rainfall on burn scars, Phillips reassures that the upcoming rain event is expected to be less severe than the previous one. The cold low-pressure system that triggered thunderstorms and convective showers, leading to higher rates of rainfall and debris flows, will be replaced by a warmer system, reducing the likelihood of such incidents. While Los Angeles anticipates a dry weekend, the Central Coast and Northern California are gearing up for precipitation. An atmospheric river is set to bring significant rainfall to the San Francisco area and snow to the Sierra mountains, while San Luis Obispo County is expected to receive scattered showers.
As the community braces for the impending rain, the delicate balance between relief and risk remains at the forefront of everyone’s minds. The hope for an end to the destructive fire season hangs on the anticipation of substantial rain, while the threat of mudslides and flooding looms over charred landscapes. Only time will tell if Mother Nature will deliver the much-needed respite to Los Angeles and its surrounding areas.