With the parenthesis of the electoral campaign closed, Spanish politics will recover its daily pulse. Which is not exactly a good omen. The inability shown by the two big parties to reach agreements, the multiple red lines that make dialogue difficult, will continue to exist, at least until the general elections in December decide whether there will be a replacement in Moncloa. Politics will remain prey to polarization, and everyone has their share of responsibility in stopping populism, always ready to manipulate emotions and fuel tension. To see in the other an enemy.
It will not be easy. Spain has changed. The electorates are not so stable and the PSOE and the PP, in their eagerness to expand towards the center, do not have such defined positions. They don’t disagree that much on some of the big issues, but there is no understanding.
“There is no common goal. In the eighties and until the end of the 20th century, there were many personalities who entered politics because there was a project for the country that they thought was worth fighting for. Now there is not even a shared definition of what is happening. There is no project capable of arousing cohesion and they go like a headless chickenâ€, says Rafa MartÃnez, professor of Political Science at the University of Barcelona.
There is too much tacticalism in politics and red lines are drawn that make negotiation difficult. There are issues that are so urgent that it seems obligatory for the PSOE and the PP to come to an agreement to find a solution. Failure to do so should have electoral consequences and they should fear failure in those negotiations. But the big parties have not depended on themselves for a long time. Other formations to their left and right behave like pressure groups that complicate their lives. And they must balance their interests, their ideological coherence, and the fear of losing support. The scenario is so volatile that parties often prefer to do nothing rather than make mistakes, they prefer not to win than to lose. And this year’s election cycle complicates everything.
“If you want to reach agreements with someone, you must point out the discrepancies, but also the points of consensus, and tell them that if they want we can go that way, and if not, we continue with our differences,” Rafa MartÃnez emphasizes. Those red lines forever that are put to agree with others do not make much sense. Respect for minorities refers to trying to integrate them into the agreements, but it is clear that we have an electorate that is becoming more and more hooligan and does not forgive itâ€. It is not optimistic. “When a party has driven its voters to the extreme, it is almost irretrievable. You cannot change your speech or they will leave you, â€he adds.
“It is difficult to redirect electorates,†agrees the director of the Institute of Political and Social Sciences, Gabriel Colomé. But the border can be extended towards other spaces with the discourse or the way of doing things. Jordi Pujol and Pasqual Maragall were voted for by people who were not of their ideology but liked the characterâ€. Regarding the red lines to agreements with others, Colomé points out that the electorate sometimes rewards them, for example if it is with respect to Vox. “The neo-Francoists are like kryptonite, nobody comes close -he ironically-, only the PP”.
Despite the difficulties in sitting down to negotiate, taking the initiative is still a point in favor, it indicates that you want to be part of the solution. And it should not necessarily come from whoever governs, but part of the canon is that the strongest has to give up more, regardless of whether the negotiation is more or less tough, points out Rafa MartÃnez. “Consensus implies being willing to compromise. All of this is known. It is not practiced because of all the internal and external balances that have to be made and because they are truly terrified that their electorate will leaveâ€, points out this political scientist, who warns that when the leaders are not strong, the tendency to close ranks is greater, so as not to appear weak if they agree with the adversary.
Both Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo have critical voices in the party, but Sánchez rules and that reduces internal tension, because he can reward and punish. Feijóo does not govern, but he has that expectation, which means a truce for him. Everything can change this 28-M, if the PSOE wins the elections, and if Isabel DÃaz Ayuso obtains a resounding victory in Madrid and decides to fight to be the candidate in the general elections. If it happens it will be from tonight. The campaign has parked the disputes. Everyone knows that if there are internal wars they lose votes. It happens to the left and to the right, although the conservative voter is usually more practical, says Colomé.
The polls will continue to set the standard. With elections on the horizon, the parties become tactical. It is not time yet for the PP to consider large agreements that can give an electoral gain to the adversary. For the PSOE, the end of the legislature can trigger tensions with the partner United We Can, which also makes numbers. “If they want to make the rise of Yolanda DÃaz profitable and continue in government, Podemos and Sumar must reach an agreement to go together in the general elections. But it is not clear that it happens, knowing Pablo Iglesias. In a classic communist logic, they prefer to be fewer but unitedâ€, says Colomé.
Politics is not an exact science, but divisions subtract and agreements can add up. The parties always make calculations. They should take it into account.
