Beware of fake news. In a year in which half of the world’s population will be called to participate in an electoral process, the Davos Economic Forum considers that the greatest short-term risk for the world economy lies precisely in misinformation (and the consequent manipulation). The organization published yesterday its Global Risk Report 2024, in which it analyzes each year what are the biggest unknowns that the business world will face. Well, extreme weather events are other dangers (they occupy second place) and are also the main long-term concern. The environmental aspect has been climbing positions throughout the editions and after 2023 was the warmest year on the planet since there are records, climate change no longer seems a possibility, but rather a factor that will have to be dealt with in the next decades.
The geopolitical aspect is also gaining points, with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Two-thirds of world experts predict that a multipolar or fragmented order will take shape in the next decade. Likewise, it is warned that cooperation on urgent global issues could be limited.
The report, produced in collaboration with Zurich Insurance Group and Marsh McLennan, is based on the opinions of more than 1,400 global risk experts, policymakers and leaders surveyed in September. “The results show a predominantly negative view of the world in the short term, which is expected to worsen in the long term. “30% of world experts consider that, in the next two years, the probability of global catastrophes occurring will be greater, and nearly two-thirds expect this to occur in the next ten years,” the study states. He adds: “The interrelated risks of AI-driven misinformation and disinformation, as well as social polarization, lead the risk outlook for 2024. The link between falsified information and social unrest will take center stage in the elections that will be held in several major economies in the next two years.”
It is still surprising that in the catalog of risks, factors strictly linked to the economy such as interest rates, debt or inflation hardly appear in the top positions. The only mention is for the development of AI. In this sense, Carolina Klint, commercial director in Europe at Marsh McLennan, warned: “Advances in artificial intelligence will radically alter the risk perspectives of organizations, since many of them will have difficulties reacting to threats derived from information.” erroneous, disintermediation and strategic miscalculations.