Satisfaction in Barcelona business centers after the 12-M recount. The candidates they had opted for, the socialist Salvador Illa and the post-convergent Carles Puigdemont, have occupied the first two positions, although the result of the latter has been discreet, bordering on mediocre. On the other hand, ERC, with whom the bourgeoisie has clashed in numerous cases while it has governed from the Generalitat, has been greatly weakened, which blocks both the formation of a bipartite with the socialists and that of a tripartite with the commons. One of the worst scenarios for the centers of economic power.
But what do the results say, thinking about the reconstruction of the nationalist center-right space, the classic of the Pujolist Convergència, the great desire of the Catalan bourgeoisie, its main work in this latest campaign? The long-awaited return of a discourse that galvanizes the middle classes around a plan for a differentiated but integrated relationship, without confrontation, with Spain. The rupture has been ruled out and it has the capacity to influence the political and economic agenda of the State. Let it return to the pedestal of great priorities its developmental program of permanent investment in infrastructure, low taxation and emphasis on promoting private activity.
Read in socioeconomic terms, the 12M results show that, at least in these elections, the most transversal party among the middle classes is the PSC. It is clearly imposed as the first choice of voters in all income segments, except in the two highest brackets. In the second highest, it is still in the lead, but Junts is hot on its heels, just one point less. And it is only in the 10% with the highest level of income, the class of the upper bourgeoisie, where it loses leadership, surpassed by Puigdemont’s team, who has an advantage of more than six points.
In this bourgeois vote for Junts, the nationalist aspirations of some, the least, certainly converge, who see their leader as the legitimate representative of the Generalitat beheaded by way of article 155 of the Constitution. Although for the majority the irresistible charm of the promise of tax cuts prevails. The great articulator of the middle classes and the bourgeoisie. In Catalonia and in the world; although in the case in question sublimated by the comparative grievance of the advantageous situation of his peers in Madrid. And Junts has made it its own without leaving room for doubt.
Transversality also implies centrality, the cement with which Pujol built his hegemony for more than two decades. For now, on 12M the concrete mixer has unloaded at the socialist headquarters.
The bourgeoisie has been pushing Junts for some time in its journey from competition with ERC on the national front towards some post-procés version of the peix al cove, which will be difficult to differentiate from the Pujolian one.
The enveloping maneuver of the business world began much earlier, when he named Puigdemont of Waterloo as the heir of Pujolism and, in return, he promised to forget about the referendum, focus on the amnesty and think about the economy. Certainly a still unpolished, raw candidate, but one who was quickly evolving towards the practices of the classic Jordi Pujol. What the latter acknowledged shortly before voting. Just like former president Artur Mas.
The last fencing gesture was executed by Josep Sánchez Llibre, president of Foment, together with his senior staff, when meeting with Puigdemont in Argèles. A photograph that the host greatly appreciated, immersed in a journey towards social recognition. Varnish reinforced by the Catalan Chambers, headed by Josep Santacreu, president of the Barcelona Chamber.
The Catalan bank, to the extent that it exists, debates that BBVA’s takeover bid for Josep Oliu’s Sabadell has fueled, it had already assured the board members financing for the campaign, more necessary than ever before the special effort: taking it to the other side of the Pyrenees.
All movements that have sought to legitimize Junts before the business world and the middle classes in exchange for their commitment to assuming their economic ideology. Shortly after those loud visits, Junts presented an electoral program with broad liberal, economic right-wing lines. In those days, the vote of the Junts and PNV parliamentarians in Congress was decisive in overturning a non-legal proposal from Sumar, contrary to their interests, and saving another from the PP, which was favorable. The conservative front was advancing.
Now, the bourgeoisie reflects. A large group believes that it is advisable to incline Puigdemont towards an agreement with the Socialists so that he clears the way for Illa’s investiture in exchange for some substantial economic agreement in Madrid. The possibilities, being optimistic, seem slim, but the return seems high. Especially if taxation can be introduced into the pact.
But others consider that the leader of Junts is still not reliable and prefer to direct their efforts towards a weakened Oriol Junqueras, a staggering factotum of ERC, who would least benefit from repeating elections and the most natural accomplice of the PSC. Although in this case the reward of a certain fiscal benevolence disappears. There are always resignations.
Puigdemont is a walking contradiction. He carries the past of the process on his shoulders, an asset to preserve the electoral base on 12M. But it will be increasingly a burden as Catalan society blurs the imagery of the turbulent years.
Junts will need a new leader for normality, at the moment it is not clear who and above all a renewed credible worldview about Catalonia, its role in Spain and in the world, the reality of its economy and a catalog of reasonable aspirations for its middle classes. . Pending conditions for the recovery of the model that the elites want.
