The electoral race for the presidency of Mexico is about to be defined, with only a little more than 10 days left for millions of citizens to cast their vote, while polls continue to give Claudia Sheinbaum a wide advantage over her closest opponent. The lead is now 36 points.
The electoral campaign is about to end, but the preference of those surveyed has remained markedly inclined to the left, which is why the candidate of the National Regeneration Movement party (Morena) is emerging as the wide favorite to succeed President Andrés. Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).
Next Sunday, June 2, is the date on which millions of Mexicans are expected to go to the polls to elect the candidate who will lead the country in the next six years.
There are three candidates with the greatest prominence in this race. One is Claudia Sheinbaum, from the Let’s Keep Making History alliance made up of the Morena parties, the Labor Party (PT) and the Mexican Green Ecologist Party (PVEM).
On the other hand, there is his closest adversary, Xóchitl Gálvez, of the Strength and Heart Coalition for Mexico, made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). The third contender is Jorge Álvarez Máynez, the only male candidate, who represents the Citizen Movement.
Since September 2023, when Claudia Sheinbaum emerged as the standard-bearer of the Let’s Keep Making History alliance, citizens’ preferences have given her a wide advantage in all the surveys carried out.
The most recent survey carried out by the prestigious polling house De las Heras Demotecnia, puts Sheinbaum in the lead in the polls. The survey was carried out between May 16 and 19, 2024, through 1,400 interviews carried out in homes.
As has happened since August 2022, those surveyed by De las Heras have given their approval to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a support that has been constant throughout the six-year term. Now, in May 2024, López Obrador maintains 75 percent approval among those surveyed, which indicates that at least three-quarters of Mexicans are satisfied with the current president’s management.
In the section of the survey where knowledge of the character is asked, Sheinbaum had an increase of 1 percent compared to last month and reaches 89 percent. For his part, Gálvez reached 82 percent and Jorge Álvarez had a significant 64 compared to 53 percent last month.
Regarding the opinion of the respondent about the candidates (they can choose very good, good, neither good nor bad, bad, very bad and don’t know), the Morena candidate had 66 percent positive opinions against 12 of negative opinions. In contrast, the conservative candidate reached 26 percent positive opinions in the survey, against 44 percent negative opinions. Finally, the Citizen Movement standard bearer had 46 percent positive opinions against 17 percent negative ones.
De las Heras Demotecnia has also outlined the most likely electoral scenario if the election were held at this time.
After the survey carried out among the interviewees, it is evident that with a participation of 54% of the citizens, Claudia Sheinbaum would have a vote estimate of 64%, while Xóchitl Gálvez would obtain 28% of the preferences and Álvarez Máynez 8%.
This, translated into number of votes, would mean that the Morena candidate would obtain 34 million votes in this probable scenario.
For her part, the PRI-PAN-PRD candidate would obtain 14 million, while the representative of the Citizen Movement would obtain 4 million votes.
