Once the elections to the Parliament have been held this Sunday, the legislature will begin to work with a calendar with fixed deadlines but with dates that could vary and with unprecedented factors that may affect the development of the process: the European elections and the final approval of the law of Amnesty. Factors that add to the intrinsic difficulties for an investiture and the formation of a government based on the results of the polls.
The calendar that opens regarding the future of the XIV Catalan legislature will depend on the day on which the Parliament is constituted, for which the law establishes a period of 20 business days from the holding of the elections, that is, June 10 as very late, the day after the elections to the European Parliament and most likely with the Amnesty law definitively approved and in force.
Taking June 10 as a reference as the most probable date for the constitution, the investiture debate should be held on June 25 at the latest. In the event that a president cannot be elected, a highly probable scenario if the vetoes that have been announced so far are not undone, a period of two months would begin to run from the first vote to try to achieve it. If the blockade is finally imposed after these two months, on August 26, the Parliament would automatically be dissolved and new elections would be called, which would take place after 47 days, probably on Sunday, October 13.
Tomorrow, the Senate, with an absolute majority of the PP, will veto the Amnesty law, speeding up the entire period that the Upper House had to process the law, even reforming its regulations to lengthen the process.
The electoral campaign for the elections to the European Parliament will begin in the early hours of Friday, May 24, and will be marked by the great polarization between the PSOE of Pedro Sánchez and the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, which starts as a favorite and intends to turn them into a new plebiscite at Government.
If nothing goes wrong, Congress will lift, probably in the last May plenary session scheduled for May 28-30, the Senate’s veto of the Amnesty law and the law will be definitively approved and will come into force the next day with its publication in the Official State Gazette.
According to the text, the judges will have two months to approve it and one of the consequences it will have is that the investigating judge of the procés case will have to lift the precautionary measures that weigh on Carles Puigdemont, such as the arrest warrant. However, the judges could send a preliminary ruling to the Court of Justice of the European Union, which would paralyze the process by which the question is raised.
The results of the European elections to be held on Sunday, May 9, will have a Spanish and a Catalan reading and the two combined readings could affect the decisions in terms of pacts made by the different parties involved in the future governance of Catalonia.
The XIV legislature will begin with the constituent session of the Parliament. It is foreseeable that this, which must be convened by the acting president, in this case Pere Aragonès, will take place on June 10. In this session, the new president of the Parliament, the two vice presidents and the four secretaries of the Board will be elected, elections that will reveal a series of political agreements that will give clues as to where a new investiture could be forged and, consequently, the future of the legislature. The president of the Parliament needs the support of the absolute majority to be elected in the first vote. If this majority is not reached, the vote is repeated and the person who obtains the greatest number of votes is elected.
Within eight business days from the day after this session, the parliamentary groups will be formed, probably on June 20. To form your own group it is necessary to have at least five deputies, so in the case in question both the CUP and Aliança Catalana will share the mixed group, where parliamentary subgroups can be formed with a minimum of three deputies from the same party.
In the 10 days after the constitution of the Parliament, the investiture debate of the president of the Generalitat must also begin. This period would end on June 25 if the constitution takes place on June 10. The proposed presidential candidate presents his government program to the Plenary and requests the confidence of the chamber. After the debate, the vote proceeds, which since 1980 has been done by the system of calling by voice with a response of “yes”, “no” or “abstention”.
To be invested, the candidate needs the support of the absolute majority of the chamber (68 votes). If he does not achieve this support in the first vote, he can undergo a second debate two days later and a second vote in which a simple majority is enough to be invested, that is, more votes in favor than against.
If the candidate is not inaugurated, the president of the Chamber must carry out a new round of consultations with the groups and propose a candidate again. If after two months from the first investiture vote no candidate is elected, the legislature is automatically dissolved and new elections are called immediately so that they can be held 47 days after the call.
Sunday, October 13, is the most likely date for a repeat election if, after the legally established deadlines have elapsed, there is no viable investiture.
