On the election night of the least contested Super Tuesday in history, the only surprise is that the clear loser, Nikki Haley, remains, for now, in the Republican race to the White House. The former governor of South Carolina still feels strong enough to continue fighting a battle that almost everyone considers lost. He has only been able to defeat Donald Trump by the slightest in one of the 15 states in dispute on the day with the most votes on the primary calendar: Vermont, a Democratic bastion, with a greater presence of moderates and independents, but little representative of the Republican voter base. For his part, Biden has taken comfortable victories in all of this Tuesday’s elections – with the anecdotal exception of the territory of American Samoa –, surpassing by wide margins the timid protest vote in several states for his support for Israel in Gaza.
The scenario that draws tonight’s electoral map is the reissue of the presidential battle that took place four years ago: Biden against Trump. A dispute between two unpopular octogenarians (aged 81 and 77), who are rejected by six out of ten Americans every time they are asked in polls, but which is confirmed every time they go to the polls.
When the majority of states had already closed their polls, and in light of the victories projected by the Associated Press after the first counts, Trump celebrated the results by calling for the union of the Republican Party: “we have tremendous talent in the party and we need unity , but we are going to have it soon,” he said in a speech from his private club at Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach (Florida). Without any mention of his only rival, he has focused on attacking Biden for his management of inflation and immigration, two of the issues that could cost him the most ahead of the elections on November 5.
“Tonight’s results leave Americans with a clear choice,” the president said in an early statement: “Are we going to keep moving forward or are we going to allow Donald Trump to drag us back into chaos, division and division?” darkness that defined his mandate? With the vote now underway, he tweeted that “millions of voters” have shown that “they are ready to fight Trump’s extremist plan.” “Every generation of Americans will face a moment when they will have to defend democracy. This is our fight.”
Tonight’s large-scale voting and speeches mark the beginning of the direct duel between both candidates. Biden, with no major competition in his party other than the anecdotal candidacy of Dean Phillips – as is usual for a president seeking re-election – has won with wide margins in all the primaries to date, including the 15 states in dispute this Super Tuesday , with the only exception of the caucuses of the territory of American Samoa – which does not vote in the presidential elections –, where businessman Jason Palmer has won. Trump, who after the first election date in January, in the Iowa caucuses, got rid of all of his opponents except Haley, tonight has consolidated his indisputable dominance over the Republican Party.
Thus, on election day this Tuesday, the focus was on the vulnerabilities of both candidates. Trump has suffered to win in the northeastern states of the country, more moderate and with a greater presence of independents and Democrats, such as Massachusetts and Maine. And he has lost to Haley by a four-point margin in Vermont, a small state that only awards 17 of the 874 delegates in dispute this Super Tuesday on the Republican side, which in July will elect the party’s candidate to the White House.
Given the tight scenario drawn by the polls for November, the magnate will need to unite the party and win the support of the former governor’s voter base, who wants to turn the page on a candidate cornered by numerous judicial cases and with increasingly rhetoric. increasingly authoritarian, xenophobic and conspiratorial. In successive exit polls since the election year began, about 40% of Haley voters would prefer to stay home or support Biden rather than cast their vote for Trump.
The results also show some weaknesses of Biden, the president with the lowest approval rating at this point (38.1%) since 1948, in the last year of Harry Truman’s term (36.1%), according to the FiveThirtyEight model. The Democrat already faced an important protest vote in Michigan last week – which exceeded 100,000 votes – for his administration’s support for Israel in Gaza, and this Super Tuesday he was once again present in states such as Colorado (7%), Minnesota (20%) or North Carolina (12%).
The latter was the only swing state (or pendulum state) in dispute tonight. Biden has swept 88% of the votes, defeating the blank vote promoted by the punishment campaign. There, Trump has also won with a wide margin, with 75% of the ballots. This state, which voted for Barack Obama in 2008, for Mitt Romney in 2012, for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020 – with a margin of just over one point – is among the six that are predicted to be most decisive heading into November.
For this reason, part of the analysis has focused on this election night. There, citizens were also called to vote in the primaries of each party for governor, which have served to decide the candidates to succeed Democrat Roy Cooper, who has been in office since 2017. After the votes were counted, defeated the candidate supported by Trump, Mark Robinson, very controversial due to a series of transphobic and anti-Semitic comments on social networks, where he even called Michelle Obama a “man” and quoted Adolf Hitler on Facebook. On the Democratic side, he has won Josh Stein, who would become the state’s first Jewish governor if he wins in November.
Biden and Trump have not yet mathematically achieved their parties’ nomination, despite their resounding victories. But it is likely that they will get it this month, in the next primary elections on the 12th in Georgia and Washington state, and on the 19th in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio. That is why his campaign messages already focus on his direct duel in the presidential elections on November 5.
