In recent weeks there has not been one electoral campaign in Euskadi, but two. The first lasted for weeks, obviously before the official start of the campaign, and focused on the situation of public services or housing prices – the major citizen concerns -, although without forgetting the issue of self-government. The profile was relatively low and did not activate a great electoral drive. The ‘second campaign’ began between Monday night and Tuesday morning, and has been focused on the political reproach to EH Bildu for its position when it came to making a critical reading of terrorism, although it was also splashed for the unfortunate attack on Imanol Pradales in Barakaldo, with no political connection.
The latest polls, however, were published between Wednesday of last week (the CIS) and this Monday, and the big question at this moment is to what extent this ‘second’ electoral campaign, which, Furthermore, it has developed during the decisive days.
According to the CIS pre-election published on April 1, one in three Basques decides their vote in the last week: 20% during these last seven days, 5% during the day of reflection and 6% in front of the ballot box. So what happened in recent days could have had an impact on those who were undecided, who, depending on the survey, were between 20% and 30%, a much higher figure than usual.
The question is in what direction he has been able to direct his vote. And there the issue is much less clear.
The latest published polls, practically all of them, placed EH Bildu with a slight advantage over the PNV. The last days of the campaign have focused on this formation, which since the weekend became the rival to beat, and, in particular, on the controversial statements of Pello Otxandiano on Cadena Ser, avoiding using the term “terrorist band ” to refer to ETA.
Could this dynamic have harmed the independence candidate? Precedents say no. In last year’s municipal elections, a much more sensitive controversy arose due to the presence of people convicted of terrorism on the EH Bildu municipal lists. And yet, the nationalist coalition, which knew how to rectify, achieved its best historical results in municipal elections.
Furthermore, the voting loyalty of the Abertzale coalition last week was around 90% (that is, 9 out of 10 of those who voted for them in 2020 will vote for them again) and consolidated transfers were seen from other formations (according to the CIS): 9% from the PNV; 32% from Podemos; 10% since abstention… The data from the EiTB Focus survey were similar, and in the case of the CIS, it also reported that 28.6% of new voters opted for the nationalist coalition (compared to 22.3% in the case of the PNV). At most, this week, complicated for EH Bildu, could have limited these transfers, although the experts consulted are cautious in this regard.
As for the PNV, voting loyalty was lower, around 63%, and the great challenge of the formation at the beginning of this week was, precisely, to activate its voters and encourage the electoral drive to increase.
In the Jeltzales ranks they are optimistic about this, they believe that what happened in the decisive week of the campaign may not take away votes from EH Bildu, but it may activate theirs. They argue this possible trend, fundamentally, for three reasons: the mobilizing effect of the polls that placed EH Bildu in the lead, the influence of a campaign in which, now, Pradales has had a great role and, finally, the campaign itself. EH Bildu’s position expressed with respect to ETA, something that may irritate his people.
The first part of the campaign, focused on social issues and linked to the management of recent years, could have harmed the PNV, which has felt more comfortable in recent days, thrown into a clash with EH Bildu, both because of the issue of condemnation of terrorism and the search for ideological antagonism.
The situation is less clear with respect to the rest of the training. The campaign has had a clear bipartisan sign, due to the tight struggle between the PNV and EH Bildu, although the rest of the parties have been able to show their heads these days, especially in the debates that have been held during the decisive days. And all the formations are at stake a lot.
The PSE, which will have the key to governability, could be placed in a very complicated position if it does not reach an absolute majority with the PNV, something that would force them to look to the PP. The popular ones have, precisely there, the opportunity to regain relevance in Basque politics and they long for a scenario in which Jeltzales and socialists do not have a majority.
Finally, Podemos, Sumar and Vox risk their parliamentary survival, since they could be left without representation.
The Basque electoral campaign was slow to take off, due to the effect of the holiday period, due to the celebrations in Bizkaia linked to Athletic’s victory in the Cup and, thirdly, due to the interruption of the campaign due to the death of Lehendakari Ardanza. The decisive week, however, has triggered the electoral drive. It remains to be seen what the effects of such intense days will be.
