The function of a dam is to contain the water so that it does not penetrate a certain irrigation area, flooding it excessively. This agrarian simile helps to describe the political situation in which the PP finds itself after 28-M. To govern with a sufficient majority in certain geographical territories – this is the case of Valencia, the Balearic Islands or Extremadura – you have to agree with Vox. At the same time, any political agreement in all these regions with the ultramontane candidates, mere delegates of the party leadership in Madrid, harms, or at least casts serious doubts, on the idea that Feijóo can arrive by himself, without depending on certain supports or pay certain tolls, to Moncloa.
What is the dominant opinion in the PP? We would say that neither or, perhaps, both at the same time: the urgency shown with the pact in Valencia, trusting that the faster it was closed, the less costs it would have, contrasts with the astonishing refusal of the Extremaduran PP to reach a legislature agreement with the organization directed by Santiago Abascal. If it were by Genoa, there was no agreement at his right hand. However, they cannot choose. The arithmetic commands and to obtain a necessary majority – first, in the regions; later, in the general elections – it involves obtaining the votes of the Vox deputies, which are essential.
In Andalusia, this crossroads already marked the first legislature as president of Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, who in 2018 arrived in San Telmo, together with Cs, thanks to the support of Vox. Three years later, in the early elections of 19J, the president of the Board obtained an (absolute) majority that made Vox an irrelevant political force. Right now he does not have even 8% of the votes. Since then, the danger of contamination by Vox in Andalusia has been averted by the PP, which has managed to manage this parliamentary geometry in such a way that, while still having the ultramontanes, in the medium term they have ceased to need them.
What is Moreno Bonilla’s secret? Basically do nothing. The first legislature of the president of the Junta, supported on the one hand by the coalition with Cs and, on the other, by the support of Vox, fled from any reformist tendency that could give the impression of wanting to dismantle the socialist heritage. His strategy can be summed up in an apparent contradiction on his own terms: preaching change without ever actually doing it. Do not bother. Prolong the previous inertia and refuse –actively– to any reform of the political paradigm.
The Andalusian PP never had the slightest temptation during its first three years of government to change anything from the Junta that it received from the Socialists. Just like the Church, it was raised on the –lost– structure of the Roman Empire. His relationship with Vox has been limited to technical issues, mere procedures or budgetary issues, without applying any of the policies demanded by the ultra-conservative party. He negotiated with his parliamentary representatives without problems, but the real concessions were either minimal or never more than testimonial.
The tactic, regardless of the damage it may entail for Andalusia, orphaned by a change that has not come to exist, yields undoubted successes in partisan terms. Moreno Bonilla, one year after obtaining an astonishing political majority in the 19J elections, has just conquered the mayoralties of the eight Andalusian capitals and seized control of six of the eight councils, condemning the PSOE to a sustained decline that guarantees that the cycle of the right in the South is going to be long. They no longer have to deal with Vox.
Can the Andalusian model be extrapolated to other regions? Ought. Although the dominant paradigm has changed: the ultramontanes are no longer content with managing the existing parliamentary majority to their advantage, largely due to the Andalusian formula. Now they want to enter all the regional executives. Not because they really believe in the autonomies. It is because this is how they show that the PP, without their help, will never repeal sanchismo. The PP plays just the opposite: to be in permanent contact with the water to prevent the current from overflowing the containment dam and ruining its harvest this 23-J.
