Senior officials of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) consulted at the headquarters of this multilateral institution in Rome estimate that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians trapped in the Gaza Strip and deprived of food and water are at immediate risk. of dying due to famine and malnutrition.

According to the latest data from the FAO, which quantify the situation expected for February 7, more than half a million people – 25% of the population of Gaza – will have joined the fifth and most serious category of the disease on that date. food security classification defined as “catastrophic and famine”.

“When people are classified into IPC five [the organization’s food security phase classification], there is what we call excess mortality and acute malnutrition,” says Rein Paulsen, director of FAO’s emergencies office in a statement. interview last Thursday.

Due to the de facto Israeli blockade on the entry of food imposed after the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 in a strategy of collective punishment, “with each passing day, the situation becomes more serious,” warns Paulsen. “If there is no change in those circumstances, there will be famine-related deaths.”

Máximo Torero, chief economist of the FAO, appears even more alarmed in another interview held during the visit to the main agency for the fight against hunger of the United Nations. “If you’re in category 5, well, you’re going to die,” he says.

Another 1.2 million Palestinians will be placed this week in category 4 – equivalent to a critical state of food insecurity – according to the FAO forecast. Given the almost impossibility of obtaining enough food, “it is a matter of days until these also enter category five,” warns Torero. “What is unprecedented in the crisis in Gaza is the speed of change,” Torero said.

The ranking used by FAO to coordinate the fight against hunger on a global scale includes three categories considered serious. “Category three is crisis, category four is emergency, and five is catastrophe and famine,” says Beth Bechdol, FAO deputy director-general.

“The entire population of Gaza – more than two million people – is already in one of these three categories and a growing number are moving into category 5. We have never seen this before in any country,” Bechdol added.

If the Israeli blockade is not lifted, a flagrant violation of international law, “hundreds of thousands of people are going to die,” warns Torero. Hence the sense of alarm that is palpable in every department of the enormous FAO headquarters in Rome.

Given the high percentage of minors in the population of Gaza and their susceptibility to lethal malnutrition, this is a new phase of the mass infanticide that began five months ago with the first Israeli bombings against Gaza that already results in more than of 25,000 dead, half of them children.

The protein shortage is already critical for the entire population, warns Paulsen. For a child suffering from malnutrition, access to milk is vitally important (…) Keeping livestock alive as a means for households to have access to milk is a big priority,” she said.

Before the Israeli bombings, the FAO managed to coordinate the shipment of feed for livestock and poultry, in order to increase the capacity of the inhabitants of Gaza to produce their own food to combat dependence on Israel. “Sheep, goats, cows, chickens and other birds are crucial,” says Paulsen. The FAO also provided support for garden production, facilitating the self-sufficiency of the area in vegetables and fruit.

But since the Hamas attack on October 7, Israel has blocked the entry into Gaza not only of the food that directly supplies the inhabitants of the strip but also that of their animals.

As a result of the bombing and the lack of food, “up to 50% of the livestock have perished,” says Paulsen. This immediately exacerbates the danger of famine for the human population.

There is still time to prevent a second human catastrophe: “A significant number of animals are still alive. Keeping them alive, by sending animal fodder, so that is the priority we have is essential for the survival of 80,000 people,” Paulsen calculates.

“It is essential that this fodder gets in for the animals but your readers will already be familiar with the difficulties of access for any type of aid to Gaza at this time,” he added.

FAO is not directly dependent on the UN agency tasked with directly supporting Palestinian refugees in Gaza, UNRWA, for distribution in Gaza. But the experts consulted in Rome agree that the withdrawal of funding to this UN agency, announced by a group of countries led by the US, will catastrophically aggravate the crisis of famine and acute malnutrition.

“Before the current crisis, UNRWA was responsible for 70% to 80% of daily support to the Palestinians, an unusual dependence on a single agency,” Paulsen said. If UNRWA is deprived of funds, “other agencies like FAO will not be able to supplant it,” he adds. “This is a huge percentage of the population. We cannot intervene overnight and provide support to them.”