Will abstention decide these elections?
It will be decisive, because the less people go to vote, the better result the right will have.
Because?
Because the right is usually less abstentionist than the left and the polls also show that since Sánchez arrived at Moncloa he has been hypermobilized.
And the left, hyperdemobilized?
The traditional voter of the PSOE is baffled and his electorate divided by identity issues…
And the recovered economy or declining unemployment do not improve the vote for Sánchez?
If the economy were bad, it would be disastrous for any government; On the other hand, when it goes well, it does not necessarily score in favor.
And the fear that the PP will damage that progress?
The right takes advantage of her image as a good economic manager so that they believe that a PP government is not going to spoil her.
What are those identity issues that the PP already capitalizes on in the polls?
Those that have to do with national and territorial identity, in addition to those that generate emotions beyond their real incidence, such as the trans law or the law of only yes is yes.
Are these issues more influential than the state of the economy or the management of government?
Even the PSOE voters, some of them of age, when we ask them if they are going to vote or not this time, the issues for which they say they will abstain are the law of only yes is yes, the trans law or the pardons to the independentistas. ..
Does the rest of the left not divide?
Before, for example, the pardons to the independentistas: the right is against; the left, in favor, and those of the PSOE are divided in half in favor or against.
Is the pro-independence call for abstention already detected in the polls?
Indeed, recent data in Ipsos show a drop in both the intention to turn out for left-wing voters and for pro-independence voters.
Can it be a decisive fall?
What makes it more relevant than on other occasions is that, for example in the 2011 elections, when the participation of the leftist vote fell, it was offset by the increase in that of the third block, that of nationalist or regionalist parties. Now, no, because we see demobilization in both.
Only in Catalonia?
And in the Basque Country, where Bildu is profitable against the PNV already in the polls its social agenda and its role as interlocutor with the central government.
Does the PSOE pay the cost of the government coalition with Podemos in the polls?
Any coalition government has a cost in itself because it is about two parties that are permanently competing. And that competition to which we were not used gives the impression of more confrontation than there is in reality.
Is Spain, despite everything, still center-left on average?
In that axis to which you allude, there are more Spaniards who declare themselves to be left or center-left than right or center-right, but not everything is rational in demoscopy.
How did we get here?
In recent years, it was the economy that focused the political debate on the three consecutive crises that this executive has managed: the crisis that it encountered, that of the pandemic and that of the war in Ukraine…
But it has not capitalized on that management.
Another reason is that he also promised that the Next Generation funds would reach the citizen’s pocket and that has not happened.
Whoever wins the center – it was said before – wins the elections. Is it true again?
The center still matters a lot. That is why the voter who defines himself as center-left and center-right may be affected and react to the PP-Vox agreements.
And punish the PP? What does it depend on?
How, as we observe in the surveys, these agreements are staged. And its content: it is not so much who you agree with as what you agree to, and I am referring to all those issues that polarize and have not been resolved.
Is the effective anti-Vox strategy a sanitary cordon or that it governs and fails like everyone else?
If the extreme right were to decline now, it would grow again if those social tensions caused by identity issues reappear.
Do the tensions that mobilize the right demobilize the left?
And in this sense, the government’s relations with Bildu have been relevant these days in the surveys…
Is the PP right in making them profitable or the government wrong in not explaining them?
There are identity issues for the PP, such as abortion, which also harm it because it may seem close to Vox; That is why he talks more about ETA and it seems that he is right about that.
Why is it so effective in voting?
Because the PP may not get votes like that, but it discourages the one on the left.
