The West loses weight in the Sahel; Russia consolidates positions in the African desert. Last Sunday, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, three countries led by military regimes after suffering coups d’état in recent years, announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the most important economic and political bloc. of the region, created in 1975 and made up of fifteen West African nations.
The seriousness of the rupture – never in almost half a century of the organization’s existence has there been a divorce of such magnitude – not only has implications for monetary policy or the circulation of goods and citizens of the three countries, without access to the sea, It is also the confirmation of an earthquake: the rift between the West and the trio of Sahelian countries, with the military in command, is widening by leaps and bounds. From Moscow they rub their hands.
The statement, signed by the respective heads of state, Burkinabé Captain Ibrahim Traoré, Malian Colonel Assimi Goita and Nigerien General Abdourahamane Tiani, leaves no doubt of the resentment towards the West and its allies. The three leaders claim to have noted “with great regret, bitterness and disappointment” how the organization has moved away from the ideals of pan-Africanism.
“ECOWAS, under the influence of foreign powers, has betrayed its founding principles and has become a threat to its member states and their populations, whose well-being it is supposed to guarantee.”
After the military riots, the three countries had been provisionally suspended from ECOWAS and punished with “illegal, illegitimate, inhuman and irresponsible” economic sanctions, according to the statement.
For Cheta Nwanze, an analyst at the Nigerian think tank SBM, what happened is one more step in the progressive loss of Western power in the region. “The withdrawal seems another example in the decline of the influence of the two traditional superpowers in West Africa: France and Nigeria.”
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who currently leads ECOWAS and heads the pro-Western sector along with Senegal, Ivory Coast and Ghana, last summer commanded the sector most likely for the regional organization to intervene militarily in Niger after the coup d’état. The rapid support for the coup plotters from Bamako and Ouagadougou unleashed fear of a regional conflict and the use of force was finally rejected.
Beyond regional enmities, the change of powers in the Sahel is not a leap into the void; On the other side is Moscow. The decision by Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso is a vitally important move in the drift of the trio of Sahelian states towards positions close to Russia.
After expelling French soldiers from their territory, the three African governments have signed security agreements with Moscow, which provides them with training, military advice or war material directly or through the Russian mercenary company Wagner.
And it’s not just security. In recent months, Russia has signed economic agreements to exploit the enormous mineral reserves of these countries – Niger has one of the main uranium reserves in the world – and to develop the energy sector.
The historic decision is not of peripheral importance for Europe, it is a central issue. The Sahel is key for Spain and southern Europe, since some of the main migratory routes to Europe pass through its territory – in recent weeks the Nigerien migratory passage through Agadez has been reactivated after the decrease in controls after the coup – and In the last decade, the region has suffered a spiral of uncontrollable jihadist violence, with the presence of both the Islamic State and Al Qaeda in the African desert.
Precisely last September, the three Sahelian countries commanded by military regimes created an alternative mutual defense body, the Alliance of Sahel States, which was a definitive blow to the waterline of the G5 in the Sahel, the regional cooperation framework against the jihadism that had operated in the area in recent years.
Russia is not an observer of what is happening in the Sahel; It is an active part. Moscow has taken advantage of and multiplied with propaganda tools the anti-French unrest of Malians, Burkinabé and Nigeriens that draws on decades of a relationship seen as unfair and unequal by the population.
Now it remains to be seen the impact of the abandonment of three Cedeao mainstays. Niagalé Bagayoko, doctor in Political Science and president of the African Security Network (ASSN), questioned this week in an analysis in RFI that the withdrawal of the African trio from ECOWAS would be accepted so easily by the population, since if it is confirmed The measure – officially a year must pass from its announcement to become official – the citizens of the three countries would not be able to freely cross the region’s borders as they have done until now. “On a political level, I think public opinion will tend to support this decision to withdraw. On the other hand, when they confirm the economic consequences, or see individually how it affects their ability to move in an extremely integrated space, there could be greater response. In my opinion, we are facing a profound and fundamental change from an institutional and geostrategic point of view.”
