“An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics like a drunk uses streetlights: to lean on them instead of to illuminate them.” The phrase of the Scottish writer Andrew Lang, author of fairy tales, describes well the crossroads of the PSOE in Andalusia fifty days before the electoral advance. 28-M leaves a feeling of shipwreck that has dislocated the organization. Socialists analyze the statistics, just like drunken Lang, and understand nothing. They look around and receive condolences (in advance). They review the numbers and doubt whether they are at the bottom of the well or sticking their heads out.
The local battle in Andalusia has meant a setback of 133,548 votes (3.56%). It doesn’t look like a catastrophe, but it feels the same. In fact, in the distribution of councillors, the Socialists still surpass the PP, which after the absolute majority on 19-J last Sunday achieved total hegemony in the great autonomy of the south. The right anchors its reales in Andalusia – the PP has grown by 11% and Vox advances by 2.5% – but the socialists insist that they are not buried. They are right if the comparison of 28-M is established with respect to the elections of 11 months ago: the PSOE improves nine points and Moreno Bonilla drops five.
With these data, Sánchez would not be evicted in Andalusia and Genoa should not be trusted. However, the sense that everyone – including the PSOE bases – gives to 28-M is that of a disaster. This mental perception is influenced by the mismanagement of expectations and the starting point from which the battlefield is seen. The Socialists are not amortized, but their improvement is due to the fact that they were at the lowest point in their history rather than a robust electoral recovery. It was not difficult to improve the loss of 19-J.
On the other hand, many of the most leafy trees of its last line of defense – the infallible municipal shield – have been mercilessly felled. The PSOE has lost the mayoralties of Seville, Huelva and Granada. Jaén is still not tied. From controlling six of the eight councils (Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén and Seville) they only retain the last two, which endangers the campaign –life or death– of 23-J.
Without the provincial corporations, the bases and all the intermediate leaders of the Andalusian PSOE have already lost. Are they going to immolate themselves again to save Sánchez? 28-M is not the apocalypse, but, as Pirandello wrote, things are not always as they are. They are as they appear to be.
