Ukraine suffers from historical bad luck. Due to its geographical location, it has been the corridor through which invaders from Napoleon to Hitler have come and gone. Stalin tried to starve them out during the Red Terror and, when they achieved independence with the Soviet decomposition, Putin started a war to cut off part of his territory. A conflict so unequal that only international help could prevent the Ukrainian crushing and the Russian military parade.
At first, the reaction of Europe and especially the United States indicated that they were willing to teach the bully a lesson. But once again fortune has turned its back on the Ukrainians. The war between Israel and Hamas has shifted the focus of international attention and Ukraine is about to become an annoying pimple that everyone wants to burst as soon as possible.
While Russia rebuilds its alliances with usual suspects such as the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia to increase the price of oil, in the North American Senate, Republicans block $50 billion in aid to Ukraine to contain the Russian offensive. Europe increases its Don Tancredo profile, avoiding the problem to the extent that the war effort begins to erode the foundations of the resort. And since misfortunes never come alone, in both the US and the EU next year is an electoral year, where the president and Parliament will be elected respectively. As the call to the polls gets closer, the debate will focus on internal issues and the external battles will fade away, especially if it is a war like the one in Ukraine, which is very far away for the Americans and for the Europeans surpass them in their ability to react and will.
Finally, as usually happens in all wars, it is known long before its end who will win. Everything indicates that the possibilities of a Ukrainian victory are increasingly remote, while the volume of voices calling for a bad agreement with the invader in the face of a hypothetical defeat of the invaded increases. All this, added to the growing opposition to President Zelensky, predicts a very harsh winter in Ukraine.
