EU leaders insist on the need to consolidate the European space by expanding it to the Western Balkans and the Eastern countries, including Turkey and Georgia, in the Caucasus. However, public opinion does not see it so clearly. There is not enough support to expand the EU at the moment, according to the latest survey by the European Center for Foreign Relations (CERE) that La Vanguardia publishes exclusively.

Enlargement will dominate the European Council that will meet on Thursday and Friday in Brussels. Heads of State and Government believe that Russia will remain a threat for the foreseeable future and that the best way to protect the EU is to bring in new partners.

However, the geopolitical reasons in favor of enlargement have not resonated with public opinion, especially in the countries of old Europe, which do not see where the advantages lie. Only Ukraine musters enough popular support to enter. The majority opinion is that the rest of the applicants will have to wait.

The entry of Ukraine, like that of the rest of the candidates, has more support in the countries of the new Europe, that is, in Romania and Poland. The older members, especially France and Germany, are more wary. They believe that the inconveniences weigh too much. Public opinion considers that there is a price to pay, not only economically, but also in terms of security, and that it is not worth it.

37% of Germans support Ukraine’s accession, but 39% oppose it. In France, 29% are in favor and 35% are against. What’s more, 50% of Germans and 44% of French people think that it is not a good time to expand the EU.

Without the determined support of France and Germany, Ukraine not only will not be able to enter the EU but will also not be able to defeat Russia, especially if the United States does not maintain financial and military aid.

Ursula Von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, considers that “enlargement is a vital policy for the Union.” “This has been my main message since the beginning of my term,” she said in early November. “We have the historical obligation to complete our Union,” she added. It is the natural horizon of the European Union.”

This horizon, however, may be very distant if the heads of State and Government do not make a greater effort to convince their respective public opinions.

Engjellushe Morina, co-author of the CERE survey, believes that a green light from the European Council for enlargement “will send a clear message to Vladimir Putin that his

“Efforts to take over Ukraine and expand its zone of influence in Europe will encounter new obstacles.”

Piotr Buras, the other co-author, agrees that this week the Council addresses one of the most important meetings in recent years. It must decide whether or not to open the access route to Ukraine and Moldova, as the Commission recommended in November. However, he believes that “Brussels’ geopolitical rhetoric masks the major concerns in member states about the consequences of enlargement. “There is enormous skepticism about the EU’s ability to incorporate new members.”

The waiting list to enter the EU is long. In addition to Ukraine and Moldova, there are Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. Georgia also has candidate status, as does Türkiye. Kosovo, finally, is also a potential candidate.

There are too many countries in a time of uncertainty. A third of those surveyed oppose an extension now and prefer to wait, a third supports it and the remaining third has no opinion. It is too low a support that requires, according to Buras and Morina, an extra effort from the EU to explain the accession process and convince public opinion.

Only in Denmark (50%) and Poland (47%) is there clear support for Ukraine’s membership. In Austria, the opposition’s membership is 52%.

The rest of the candidates from the Western Balkans have it worse. None exceeds 30% support.

The survey was carried out by YouGov and Datapraxis in six countries: France, Germany, Denmark, Austria, Poland and Romania.