Once the covid is left behind, Spain once again suffers an increase in the loss of talent with the emigration of more than 400,000 people in 2022. The value of that human capital that Spain loses exceeds 150,000 million taking into account departures alone. last year, according to estimates prepared by the socioeconomics research program of the BBVA-Ivie Foundation. It is 40% more than the lost value calculated for 2019, before the covid pandemic broke out.

What the researchers have done is try to calculate what income or wealth the inhabitants of Spain could produce in the future until they die. And they have calculated the same value for those who have emigrated in 2022. According to Ivie estimates, the departure of emigrants reduces this future capacity to create income by almost 1%. There are 158.4 billion, 40% more than in 2019.

Lorenzo Serrano, Ivie researcher and author of the report, explains that those over 25 years of age, who are the bulk of workers, have been analyzed in detail: about 332,000. Serrano explains that obviously salary is the central element that explains emigrations, but not the only one. “The characteristics of the job or the possibility it offers to reconcile are also valued,” reflects the researcher.

The profile of the emigrant in Spain is very different if it is a native person or if he or she was born in another country. In the general statistics, which group together those born in Spain and those not, 30% had higher education. On the other hand, among natives that percentage shoots up to 60%. It is especially worrying for the Spanish economy, because the latter have received higher education in public universities in most cases. Serrano points out that – although there are no detailed figures – it is possible that emigrants with a low educational level are immigrants who arrived in Spain who choose to try their luck in other countries in the European Union.

The Ivie report highlights that emigration abroad, in addition to limiting the capacity to generate wealth, is “a phenomenon that will foreseeably increase the difficulty of maintaining and continuing to develop the welfare state, especially in a context of progressive aging of the population.” . The report adds that this emigration “can contribute to aggravating the serious problems of generational change” and recalls that there are increasing difficulties “in filling vacancies” in certain sectors and professions.

According to the Ivie, “the human capital of the population is the most valuable resource of countries and represents 64% of total wealth worldwide,” according to data from the World Bank. Since this capital “is incorporated in the people themselves,” when they move, the territory of origin becomes impoverished.

In recent decades, the migration balance has been positive for Spain. During the recession due to the real estate and financial crisis from 2008 to 2014, there was a strong emigration that reached peaks in 2013, with more than half a million. “This process has regained intensity after the pandemic.” In 2021 there were 380,000 and the forecast for 2022 is 425,000. The Ivie report highlights that “its magnitude is atypical and resembles the usual figures in previous periods of crisis and increased unemployment in the Spanish economy.” The situation in 2022 was not that, since employment increased and the economy grew.

“The current rate of emigration represents a burden for the future production capacity of the Spanish economy,” insists the Ivie. The report adds that “if it is not compensated by the value of the human capital of immigrants or the future return of part of current emigrants, it would mean a significant net decrease in the human capital of the Spanish economy and its development possibilities.”

Serrano explains that what happens in Spain also happens in other European countries. In some sectors such as health services, at the same time that Spanish professionals emigrate, the country is receiving doctors from areas such as Latin America.