Hope is the last thing you lose. Although along the way, what is left behind is money. The and yes…, Can you imagine that…? or this year’s turn leads many to project in a tenth of the Christmas Lottery the solutions to their problems, the paths to their dreams – material – or the castles in the clouds of golden retirements. Or, in a more mundane way, the intention of not being left behind if it falls or for it to be a small pinch in the number that the company’s colleagues play. Whatever the case, the chances of success are always the same. And for the most relevant prizes, very very low.
The figures do not lie. Those who seek luck have 100,000 chances of finding it—in high quantities. Only one of the numbers between 00000 and 99999 will be awarded with 400,000 from the Gordo, one with 125,000 from the second prize and one with 50,000 from the third. None of the three quantities solve a life, but all of them allow, to a greater or lesser extent, to accelerate some project or another. Knowing what the chances are of one of these three being already in our hands or falling into our hands is simple: there are the same chances (1 in 100,000, 0.001%) as those that someone blindfolded has of catching the First, the only gray hair we have among the 100,000 average hairs that human beings have.
When the drum announces any of these three prizes, another six are automatically assigned: they are the ones before and after. The numbers that precede and precede the third, second and first prize (the Jackpot) automatically obtain a bonus. From lowest to highest, 960 euros each related to the third prize; 1,250 those of the second; and 2,000 those of Gordo. Each of the options has a 0.002% probability of being the one we have purchased. The same as being alive at the moment when comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF), which only visits us once every 50,000 years, passes by Earth.
As far as probabilities are concerned, the options are the same if we talk about the fourth prize, since there are two numbers that will be awarded with 200,000 — each number of all 185 series is divided into 10 tenths, so one tenth of 20 euros, winner of the fourth prize would win 20,000 euros.
From here, the options grow, although the rewards decrease. There are eight fifth prizes of 6,000 euros for the tenth. There is one chance in 12,500 that this prize goes to our tenth. They are 0.008%, the same as a non-professional golf player putting the ball into a hole, according to a calculation by the National Hole-In-One Foundation. In another measure: it is what is equivalent to one blink among all the blinks that a human being does throughout a day. Or finding a pearl in an oyster. Or similar to having triplets.
Then there are the “meeeeeurooooo” awards. And they are not only the 1,794 pedreas, but also another 3,492 numbers: those in which the hundreds of the first, second, third and fourth prizes coincide; and those who do it from the tens of the first, second and third prize. There is a percentage of almost 2% that our number matches a stone and almost 3.5% that it matches the hundreds or tens of the main prizes. In the first case, the same as finding a partner on a plane, according to an HSBC study. In the second, something higher than being a redhead in Spain.
All these figures express only theoretical probabilities. Reality, to the surprise of many, is in this case more beautiful. If the number of a tenth only matches the last figure of the jackpot, the owner can request a refund of the price of said tenth: 20 euros. But if that number is also awarded with a stone, or with the coincidence of the hundreds of a second prize, or with a third or fourth prize—or whatever—the prizes will be added. With this, a simple stone of 100 euros, each tenth can become a prize of 120 if the last figure coincides with the Gordo or up to 2,100 euros if it is the consecutive one of the first prize. The odds remain the same, although the prizes may be larger than thought.