The definitive break between Podemos and Sumar in Congress and, now, the refusal of the bases of the purple formation in Galicia to participate in a coalition condition the possibilities of an agreement in the Basque Country. The complicated negotiation between the two formations, carried out by two parties that four years ago faced each other in the Podemos-Euskadi primaries, is now joined by the specter that the militancy could reverse the agreement that is presented. The context of the negotiation has become more complicated in a matter of weeks and only the prospect of an electoral disaster plays in favor of the agreement: if they participate separately, they will have a very difficult time achieving parliamentary representation.

If a little more than a month ago there was optimism regarding the possibilities of an agreement, at this moment the concern is evident at the prospect that, beyond the agreement between the leaderships of the respective formations, ratification by the bases may mean a problem. At the moment, the first deadline for the agreement set by Podemos, which wanted to close this folder in December, has not been met and the purple formation is working with the perspective of making a decision during the first weeks of this month of January, still without knowing the specific date of the elections this spring.

Both from the ranks of the purple formation and from Sumar they point out that the negotiation is alive and they emphasize their desire for an agreement. The leader of Yolanda Díaz’s party in the Basque Country, Lander Martínez, deputy for Bizkaia, insisted publicly yesterday, on RNE, that “the best thing for the progressive space is that there is a single broad candidacy”, although he admitted that “the becoming” in Galicia “cools certain elements of the negotiation.”

The possibility that they will not reach an agreement in the Basque Country either, however, appears on the horizon as a real option, something that would deepen a rift between the two formations that in recent weeks has taken the form of an abyss.

The points that are making the agreement difficult have to do, above all, with the appointment of the candidate for lehendakari and the representation of each party on the lists. Podemos has proposed Miren Gorrotxategi, spokesperson in the Basque Parliament, while Sumar has not finished giving the green light to this option. The reluctance comes from behind, since Gorrotxategi was the one who faced Lander Martínez in the 2020 primaries. This university professor prevailed, and her opponent ended up resigning.

Now, the current leadership of Podemos, with Gorrotxategi and the general coordinator, Pilar Garrido, at the helm, meets again with a good part of the previous leadership of the purple formation. His predecessors, Lander Martínez or Andeka Larrea, are among those who registered the Sumar Mugimendua brand in November, and now they have to heal the wounds left by that primary process and their subsequent departure from the purple formation. In this sense, it is an added difficulty in reaching an agreement.

In any case, the biggest problem identified by those who know the internal dynamics of the purple formation has to do with the possibility of seducing the bases and getting them to give their definitive approval to the alliance. The rejection of the agreement in Galicia has set off alarm bells and there is a lot of concern about it.

In both formations, however, they are aware that the future of this political space in Euskadi is at stake. The latest Sociometer of the Basque Government awarded three seats out of a total of 75 to a hypothetical Podemos-Sumar coalition with Miren Gorrotxategi as a candidate. Sources of complete solvency in the field of Basque demoscopy, however, point out that if they participated separately they would be left with practically no options to achieve representation. At most, one of the two brands could aspire to achieve, with many difficulties, a single representative for Álava, a far cry from its best results in the 2015-2016 electoral cycle. It is the main incentive to achieve the agreement. The question is whether it will be enough.