The income per capita in Spain will be reduced by 17.8% until 2049 due to the long-term effects of climate change that humanity has already caused so far, according to research by the Institute for Climate Impact Research in Potsdam (Germany) presented yesterday in the scientific journal Nature. This figure places the Spanish economy as the most damaged in Europe by climate change.
Extremadura will be the most affected community, with a decrease in income per capita of 21.5%, followed by Andalusia (20.3%) and the Community of Madrid (19.9%). A reduction of 17.6% has been estimated for Catalonia, close to the average for Spain as a whole.
These data do not represent a forecast of economic decline, but the variation with respect to what would happen in the absence of climate change, the researchers point out. Therefore, the growth derived from other activities could compensate for the losses due to the environmental crisis in some regions. But the research concludes that climate change is a brake on economic development.
“In the public debate, the emphasis has been placed on the cost of protecting the climate. Much less has been said about the cost of the alternative. In our research we show that protecting the climate is much cheaper than not doing it”, says Leonie Wenz, director of the research in an email to La Vanguardia.
On a global scale, losses from climate change emissions made so far are estimated at $38 trillion annually by the end of the 2040s. The bill is sixfold the $6 trillion it would cost to take action to maintain the increase global temperature below two degrees compared to the pre-industrial period, as established in the Paris Agreement.
Damage will be unevenly distributed, and will be greater in equatorial and tropical regions than in high latitudes. The only four countries where per capita income is expected to increase due to climate change are Iceland (with an increase of 8.0%), Canada (7.9%), Finland (3.5%) and Russia ( 3.3%).
“The countries that will suffer the most from already committed damage [already caused but not yet manifested] are the ones least responsible for climate change and those with the fewest resources to adapt,” write the authors of the research in Nature. The quartile of countries that have contributed the least to climate change so far will suffer a 40% greater drop in per capita income than the quartile of countries that have contributed the most.
The climate change parameter with the greatest impact on the economy will be the increase in average temperatures, which affects agricultural productivity and labor productivity, and to which 70% of the reduction in income per capita is attributed.
Another 25% is attributed to the greater variability of temperatures – the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the year – which also affects agricultural productivity, as well as the physical and mental health of citizens.
The remaining 5% is attributed to changes in precipitation, with harmful effects on agriculture and the mobility of citizens, and also to the consequences of floods. The Mediterranean region and the central regions of South America will be the most affected in the world by changes in the volume of precipitation.
The 17.8% reduction in per capita income expected in Spain exceeds that of any other European country, but is lower than that of African countries, which could lead to an increase in migratory pressure towards Europe.
The researchers did not include in the analysis other parameters of climate change that also affect the economy but on which it is not yet possible to make precise estimates, such as sea level rise, the effects of heat waves and the ‘increase in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones. For this reason, they point out that their estimates are conservative and that the real impact of climate change on the economy will predictably be greater.
“With this research we hope to contribute to a better understanding of how the climate affects the economy. This is important to help governments, banks and companies to include climate risks in their macroeconomic forecasts”, declares Leonie Wenz.
Previous research in the emerging field of climate econometrics has offered results with a high level of uncertainty because the consequences will vary depending on what actions are taken from now on. In addition, there are no reliable models on the economic consequences of some parameters and the uncertainty increases the longer the predictions are made.
To limit these sources of uncertainty, the researchers have limited themselves to the effects of the emissions carried out so far; they have restricted the analysis to the parameters whose effects on the economy are better studied; and offer a first estimate of damages at 26 years view.
“These short-term damages are the result of past emissions,” says Leonie Wenz. “We must cut our emissions drastically and immediately. Otherwise, the economic losses will be even greater in the second half of the century, and will reach up to 60% (reduction of income per capita) on global average by 2100”.
