There are many unknowns for next year, but if you have to choose one, it would be the possibility of Trump returning to the White House. That is likely today unless the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution (which prohibits people who have participated in an insurrection from holding elected office) and the Supreme Court (controlled by those chosen by Trump himself ) prevent it. The consequences of his return would be devastating for democracy in the US and in the world, for multilateral institutions (including NATO), for Ukraine (he says he would “solve it in 24 hours”), and for trade. international. 2024 is an election year for half of humanity, and also in the European Parliament, and the transition of 2024 can reinforce democracy or autocracy.
The second transition is towards war or peace. 2023 brought us the continuation of the Kremlin’s aggression against Ukraine and that of Hamas against Israel, with a devastating response from the latter in Gaza, and with possible and dangerous regional extension. It is difficult to imagine that peace will come in 2024. Ukraine is a war of attrition and Russia can only be defeated by internal problems; An end similar to the Korean War is in sight, with an armistice but without mutual recognition. Putin will wait to see if Trump wins and in that case the EU will be in front of the mirror of its weakness and geopolitical impotence.
The conflict between Israel and Palestine is polarizing as is being seen, for example, in Ivy League universities in the US, where the culture of offense and cancellation predominates, but which does not seem to apply to the Jewish minority. In a recent YouGov/Economist poll, one in five Americans ages 18 to 29 believe the Holocaust is a myth.
The third transition is towards economic recovery or recession. The energy crisis of 2023 was not as serious as feared for Europe, given that the winter was not cold and sufficient reserves were able to accumulate with the help of liquefied gas from the US and also, paradoxically, by acquiring it from Russia. The feared recession due to the rapid rise in interest rates in the US and the eurozone did not happen and it seems that a soft landing for the overstimulated American economy is possible. The Federal Reserve is achieving this and, despite this, Trump is better perceived than Biden as a manager of the economy in a context of full employment but inflation. In Europe it is not so clear that Germany and Italy will be saved from a recession, and Spain will continue to depend on European funds.
Finally, there is the technological transition with the explosion in 2023 of artificial intelligence. AI has been developing over the years, but it has become popular thanks to ChatGPT. 2024 will be the year of its expansion, although adoption may not be as rapid as expected. Generative AI is here to stay and has caused alarm due to the possible consequences of displacement of workers, threats to privacy and appropriation of intellectual property – The New York Times has already sued OpenAI and Microsoft. AI also has great potential to increase worker capabilities and productivity. The EU has rushed to regulate its use, so that it does not introduce biases into decisions that harm citizens. Now, the EU would do well to act to be a leader in its development in addition to regulating it.