The high diplomacy of the United States and the European Union has gotten to work this weekend to try to de-escalate the growing context of war in which the Middle East lives. They want to prevent the conflict from jumping from Gaza to other borders. The attacks and the number of victims in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and the West Bank speak of its urgency. However, the first response on the ground has been more hostilities.
This same morning Hizbullah launched at least fifty missiles against northern Israel, describing its offensive as a “preliminary response” to the assassination of Hamas’ number two in Beirut, Saleh al Aruri. The Israeli Army also attacked several of its positions in southern Lebanon.
The region simmers as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and European Union High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell set foot in the region. The objective is to promote conversations between the many actors involved and avoid a war escalation with several fronts. But the stones on the road abound.
In his meeting with Borrell, the Prime Minister of Lebanon stated that “we fight for stability and are holding talks on the matter”, but immediately added that “any large-scale bombing in southern Lebanon leads to a general escalation. The “[UN] Resolution 1701 demands a stop to Israel’s violations of sovereignty and demands [Israel’s] withdrawal from our occupied territories.”
The head of US diplomacy, Antony Blinken, for his part, also met today in Istanbul with the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the first stage of his new tour of the Middle East. The meeting lasted more than 75 minutes and diplomatic sources indicate that Ankara is advocating “an immediate ceasefire” in Gaza. Previously, his Foreign Minister had already recalled that “the growing aggression in the strip represents a threat to the entire region.”
Erdogan, who describes Israel as a “terrorist” state, avoided Blinken’s visit in November. This is, at least, a step.
Hizbullah insists, however, that as long as there is war in the Palestinian enclave there will be no negotiations with Israel in order to put a stop to the current escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border. And beyond the Shiite organization, other groups also fight in the area, such as the Sunni Jamaa Islamiya.
The US support for Israel and the many voices in the EU about the conflict in Gaza also make the mission of Europeans and Americans difficult. The same thing happens for the reappearance of the Islamic State, murdering more than 80 people in Iran and for the selective attacks against pro-Iranian militants in Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi Government, in fact, has already asked the United States to leave the country.
The threat from Yemen’s Houthi rebels on the Red Sea, which forces many shipping companies to modify their routes between Asia and Europe and increase transportation costs, complicates everything a little more.