Geopolitics. Stay with the word, because it is the one that has the fashion business in suspense in view of what is coming. “The most prominent sentiment among industry leaders is uncertainty, due to conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and the prospects for moderate economic growth, persistent inflation and loss of consumer confidence,” the report states. The State of Fashion 2024, prepared annually by the Business Of Fashion portal in conjunction with the consulting firm McKinsey
If the current year has closed with a drop in sales – and with it, profits – of alarming numbers during the last quarter, especially for the large luxury groups, the forecasts for next year do not begin to announce anything good. The first forecasts are for growth for the sector of between three and five percent, up to two points less than in 2023, a consequence of the moderation in spending after the post-pandemic waste. The worst scenario is the European one, while the Chinese market, the market everyone is looking at, offers some hope for recovery.
If we add to such fragmented economic perspectives the ravages of the climate crisis and the so-called bullwhip effect caused by the distorted perception of demand (which can cause both a lack of stock and an unnecessary increase in production), we will obtain the perfect storm. What is certain is that, in times of uncertainty, consumers’ discretionary spending is concentrated on those brands and product categories that offer them confidence. Fine jewelry and watches, like leather goods, would thus be guaranteed demand due to their potential as investment securities. In any case, the challenges that await you are not few.
You notice it, you feel it, it is already present in the environment: the worn-out silent luxury, the quintessential phenomenon of 2023 in terms of style, would be about to mutate into boring luxury. The bland clothing of the great fortunes has erased, or almost, any trace of extravagance and noise from the catwalks, and with it, the fun. Faced with a situation as volatile as the one predicted, designers and brands prefer to slow down the revolutions of their proposals, hence those low-risk and high commercial potential collections seen in recent fashion weeks. And it is understandable: large firms know that, faced with a slowdown in consumption, they can only rely on the spending of the ultra-rich – with their presumed discretion – to maintain the desired income statements (that is also the reason why the high-end product will continue to rise in prices).
The trend had been observed since the arrival of Matthieu Blazy at Bottega Veneta, in 2022, and was confirmed in September with the debut of Sabato de Sarno at Gucci, which has eliminated in one fell swoop any trace of the centennial magical chaos imposed by his predecessor. Alessandro Michele. The designs stripped of fantasy and grandeur to reduce the garments to a minimum have also been shown at Ferragamo, Miu Miu, Loewe and Coperni. Bad times for fashion poetry.
It was the star topic in the recent edition of BOF Voices, the congress-coven of the thinking minds of the fashion business orchestrated by Business Of Fashion: artificial intelligence has arrived to revolutionize the industry. It’s already doing it, in fact. Many of the production processes, marketing and sales strategies and even design tasks are carried out thanks to computer programs that are not only predictive, but also generative (which create their own content based on the information provided), so that efficiency skyrockets. Everything will be a third easier to create and a third easier to sell, it is announced. A utopia that also promises to free workers in the sector from the most tedious tasks, gaining time and, in the process, quality of life.
What is not counted, however, is the dirty side of such a bright coin: the jobs that will be dispensable with AI, especially in countries with offshore production where labor rights barely count (in China, the largest supplier of world cashmere works without operators, which even the cleaning service has been replaced by Roombas). With a volume of benefits estimated at nearly three billion euros for companies that apply it, as quantified by the consulting firm McKinsey, AI is already unstoppable in any case.
It is the rumor that has circulated in the circles this year and the clamor that has ignited the wildfire on social networks during the last month: the possible departure of Demna from Balenciaga. The unfavorable reviews of the fall 2024 pre-collection show in Los Angeles, at the beginning of December, have once again put the Georgian designer in the spotlight, who has not raised his head since the controversial episode of satanic panic and child pornography in 2022. That , and the supposed confrontation with his brother Guram (flying alone as the owner and lord of Vetements) is interpreted as the end of his speech at the house of Spanish origin, which has also been involved in sales (the Kering group, owner of the firm, the included in that ten percent drop in income from its other brands). Of course, the departure of Nicolas Ghesquière as creative director of Louis Vuitton’s women’s collections was also taken for granted and in November his contract renewal for five more years was announced.
Creative putting on and taking off is, for that matter, fashion’s favorite pastime. The last to fall, Mathew Williams, leaves the Givenchy chair vacant, still without an official occupant for the entertainment of speculators. And it remains to be seen who will take over Moschino, after the departure of Jeremy Scott and the unexpected, tragic death of the person who was going to succeed him, Davide Renne, who died just ten days after his appointment. Meanwhile, the debut of the Irishman Séan McGirr in Alexander McQueen is eagerly awaited, as a replacement for Sarah Burton (his fate is unknown); that of Walter Chiapponi in Bluemarine, after Nicola Broganano restored the luster to the banner as a Y2K flag; that of Matteo Tamburini in Tod’s and that of Alessandro Vigilante in Rochas. Chemena Kamali, Gabriela Hearst’s replacement at Chloé, is the only woman between sizes coming and going among designers. Which brings us to the next question.
The red light for fashion’s social responsibility was lit again at the beginning of 2023, after the ready-to-wear week shows, and it still hasn’t gone out. First, with the return of extreme thinness and that aesthetic message that exalts female objectification and infantilization. Then, with the erasure of older women from business communication (the use of a model or celebrity who has gray hair in an advertising campaign is still making headlines, see octogenarian Maggie Smith at Loewe), it is to be done look). And to top it all off, with the flagrant absence of female designers or executives in positions of power, evidenced by the cascade of male signings (Peter Hawkings in Tom Ford or Peter Do in Helmut Lang, in addition to those mentioned above).
The statistics do not lie: despite being the main consumer force and the majority workforce, women barely occupy 40 percent of the positions of responsibility in the fashion industry. The percentage drops even more if we talk about those that belong to minority groups, which is reduced to ten (this is data from a report by the British Fashion Council). This being the case, the business still has a lot to respond to in terms of diversity and inclusion, two issues that it has promised to resolve for at least five years and that remain up in the air. And no, it does not seem that 2024 will once and for all solve the problems of rampant discrimination – gender, ethnicity, age, size, disability.
If the bill for representation is impressive, the bill for environmental commitment is beginning to be pressing. The business was filled with proposals for amendment during the days of confinement, with its promises to control overproduction and the resulting waste, cut back on processes to reduce the carbon footprint (make close proximity, reduce the number of collections, dispense with of ostentatious presentations in distant exotic destinations…) and raise awareness about responsible consumption. But it was overcoming the pandemic and returning to our old ways, in search of the lost benefits.
Part of the problem is that addressing the textile industry’s shortcomings in sustainability and circular economy means confronting a tangled web of systemic behaviors and bad practices; a challenge that has also been complicated by the current gloomy economic background and geopolitical turmoil. The good news is that real changes are coming: the era of self-regulation in favor of institutional regulations is finally over, so the sector will have to respond first to their respective governments if they fail to comply. In France, for example, large groups and brands are already required by law to provide the buyer with detailed environmental information on the product (proportion of recycled material, origin of the manufacturing and fabrics used…), and from 2024 they will also have small and medium-sized ones have to do it.
However, there are pending issues. The climate crisis in which we are immersed, after the hottest year on record and the relevant drought, urge us to take measures beyond mandatory transparency. Not to mention that paradoxical consumer habit, which continues to insist on purchasing cheap disposable clothing even knowing the harm to the health of the planet.
In The State of Fashion 2024, a curious entry appears. A section dedicated to the maneuvers of mass consumer brands, which he calls disruptors: new tactics in terms of prices, purchasing experience and speed of production and service, undertaken by challenging players like Shein or Temu, capable of navigating the turbulent times. waters of environmental regulations as a formula for success among consumers. Will next be the year in which the giants of ultra-fast fashion definitively embrace sustainability?
The commitment of Shein, the Chinese steamroller that makes cash (60 billion euros in 2023, Reuters reports) by appealing directly to its millions of followers on social networks, to achieve complete circularity by 2050 has managed to raise more than one eyebrow. Last May, she announced her alliance with the American recycling startup Queen of Raw to use textile waste from other brands in her supply chain. And it insisted on its business model based on producing on demand, thus avoiding the accumulation of stock that ends up in landfills in countries in the Global South. Temu, her most direct rival, boasts the same thing. Problem: that, in effect, they will be small quantities and limited productions, but scaled to the thousand styles they propose each week, the problem of overproduction is the same.
For its part, Zara launched its Pre-Owned/Resell program in mid-December, an online initiative in favor of circularity through which it is possible to resell garments from Inditex’s best seller or buy second-hand items. And Bershka also boasted of its new virtual fitting room, with which it will be possible to check how the clothes fit from your mobile or computer, in addition to accessing size recommendations. The results of both projects, in the coming months.
They have been our daily bread on TikTok, X and Instagram: snapshots of celebrities, randomly captured in public spaces like ordinary mortals, wearing fabulous outfits. Organic street style moments that are sold to news agencies, which in turn place in all types of media, which in turn are replicated on social networks, which in turn end up in the brands’ press releases. Now we know that everything is a huge marketing play concocted by the companies themselves. Covert ads, planned in advance, bought and paid for, increasing your bottom line and the reach of your digital footprints.
What has been Hollywood’s best kept secret, a kind of product placement with celebrities and paparazzi on the brands’ payroll, was finally revealed thanks to Bottega Veneta’s pre-spring 2024 campaign starring rapper A$AP Rocky in different street captures (agreed). And, just a few weeks ago, with the photographs of Kendall Jenner walking through Aspen, which turned out to be the attraction of the pop-up that the luxury electronic boutique FWRD – in which the model serves as creative director – has opened for Christmas and new snow season.
The question that arises from now on is whether this type of ghost advertisements should be regulated, so that it is clear that the photograph we are seeing on the mobile screen is actually propaganda. It also opens the doors to a new representation of luxury, which reconstructs its identity in the image and likeness of reality. Situationist luxury, you would have to call it. It will make you talk, but, above all, think.
Inexhaustible when it comes to creating socio-aesthetic phenomena that benefit its coffers, the clothing business was already late in dispatching a new global trend to which it could hold us hostage. After the glorification of the two-mile aesthetic of Y2K, accused of exhaustion, the indie sleaze had to happen. The natural succession in the cycle of eternal return of fashion. Like that one, this trend also comes empty of content, clean of dust and straw. If anything, reappropriated positively. No, today no one wants to be a junkie. Nor will she end up like Peaches Geldof or Britanny Murphy, who, for that matter, let’s see who under 20 years old knows about them, their scope and meaning. Although prioritizing foam over substance may be the most convenient.
There is also no need to worry, in reality, that the commercial return – ascension to the mainstream, if you prefer – of rock romanticism with an indie attitude, with its ephebic thinness, disheveled hair and mood between nihilist and party animal that Hedi Slimane established in Dior Homme a early 2000s, it is more inane dynamite for social networks (this year it has been a clamor on TikTok) than a genuine cultural design. For that matter, Prada, Saint Laurent, Gucci or Diesel have already jumped on the bandwagon, Celine aside (where Slimane reigns today). If anything, the only thing that should be a cause for concern is the return of the garment that defined that moment: the skinny jean. If he ever left.