American politics is paralyzed by a contradiction the size of the Grand Canyon. Democrats roar against Donald Trump’s re-election and say it will spell the downfall of their country’s democracy. And yet, when it comes to deciding his rival in the November elections, it seems that the party will meekly approve the candidacy of an 81-year-old man with the worst approval rating of all modern presidents at this point. of mandate. How did it come to that?
Joe Biden’s approval level is 16 points below his disapproval rate. Trump, ahead in the polls of the undecided states that will decide the elections, is very close to his second presidential victory. While Trump may not be perceived as a potential dictator, it is an alarming prospect. A substantial portion of Democrats would prefer that Biden not run; but, instead of proposing an alternative or supporting him without fissures in his campaign, they dedicate themselves to grumbling with a stunned look against the mess they are in.
There are no secrets about the reasons for Biden’s unpopularity. In part, it is due to the sustained inflationary outbreak suffered. And then there is age. Most Americans know someone who has turned eighty and is beginning to show their age. He also knows that, no matter how good a person he is, he should not be given another four-year stint in the world’s most difficult job.
In 2023, Biden could – and should – have decided to be a one-term president. He would have been revered as an example of public service and a rebuke to Trump’s outsized ego. The Democratic bigwigs know it. In fact, before his party did better than expected in the midterm congressional elections, many party members thought Biden would step aside. The Economist maintained more than a year ago that the president should not run for re-election.
Unfortunately, Biden and his party had several reasons for him to participate in yet another campaign, none of them good. His sense of duty has been tainted by vanity. Having first run for president in 1987 and having worked so long to get a seat behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office, he has been seduced by the belief that his country needs him because he has proven capable of defeating Trump.
And surely your staff’s desire to serve has also been clouded by ambition. It is natural in administrations that many of a president’s closest advisors will never be so close to power again. Of course, they don’t want to see his man leave the White House to focus on his presidential library foundation.
Democratic leaders have been cowardly and complacent. Like many faint-hearted Republicans in Congress, who did not like Trump and considered him dangerous (but did not dare to remove him or even criticize him), the Democratic faithful have not wanted to act in line with their concerns regarding Biden’s folly. If he has been because of the threat to their own careers, the behavior has been cowardly. If it was because he thought Trump was his own worst enemy, he was complacent. Biden’s approval ratings have continued to fall, while the 91 criminal charges Trump faces have so far only strengthened him.
Under the circumstances, one would think it would be best for Biden to stay out of it. After all, the election is still ten months away and the Democratic Party has plenty of talent in its ranks. Unfortunately, not only is this a very unlikely eventuality, but the more you look at what could happen, finding an alternative to Biden at this point would be a desperate and reckless roll of the dice.
If he were to drop out today, the Democratic Party would have to dramatically reconfigure its primaries, because filing deadlines have already passed in many states and the only other candidates on the ballot are a little-known congressman named Dean Phillips and a female guru. of self-help named Marianne Williamson. Assuming that such a reconfiguration were possible and that the foreseeable avalanche of lawsuits was manageable, state legislatures would have to approve new dates for the primaries very close to the August convention. A series of debates would have to be organized so that primary voters knew what they were voting for. The range of candidates could be enormous, and there would be no obvious way to narrow it down quickly: 29 candidates ran in the 2020 Democratic primary.
Such chaos could be worth it if the party could achieve the security of reaching the elections with a young and eligible candidate. However, it seems equally possible that the eventual winner would end up being ineligible: Bernie Sanders, for example, a self-declared democratic socialist who is a year older than Biden. In any case, the candidacy would most likely fall to Kamala Harris, the vice president. Harris has the advantage of not being old, although it says a lot about the gerontocracy of the Democratic Party that she is turning 60 in November and is considered young.
Unfortunately, she has proven to be a poor communicator, a liability both in office and on the campaign trail. Harris is a product of the California political machine and has never managed to attract voters in other states. Her 2020 campaign was awful. She sometimes gives the impression that her teleprompter has been hacked by a comedian. Immigration and the southern border (issues addressed for Biden) are the most important issue for Trump and the weakest for Democrats. Harris’ chances of beating Trump seem even slimmer than her boss’s.
Therefore, Democrats better focus on electing Biden. The economy promises a soft landing; Workers are seeing real wage growth and full employment. If Trump were convicted, voters could then punish him. The most important thing is to invigorate the campaign. Democrats need to unleash some enthusiasm and create a sense that a second term is possible.
The president is no good at campaigning and faces a candidate whose rallies are a cross between a cult meeting and a vaudeville show. He needs someone who knows how to speak to crowds and get on television for him. That person is not Kamala Harris.
One way she could serve her party and her country, and help keep Trump out of the White House, would be for her to give up another term as vice president. Biden could thus present her second term as a different presidency where she would share more responsibilities with a vice president who would act more like a CEO. In any case, Biden needs the help of an army of enthusiastic Democrats willing to campaign alongside her. For now, he and his party are sleepwalking toward disaster.
© 2024 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved
Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
