The Ibex 35 closed 2023 with a gain of 22.5%, its best year since 2009. In comparison, Wall Street had significant gains on the Nasdaq, appreciating 43.3%, almost double that of S
The stock market discounts everything, and the so-called “fear index” (the future sale on S shares
What can we expect from the stock market in 2024? One of the largest sovereign investors (Norges Fund) published its annual report at the end of 2023. For 2024 it anticipated several risks. It allocated 20% to geopolitical tensions (possibly anticipating the blockade of sea routes from Asia to Europe by the Houthi guerrillas) and 8% to low liquidity in the markets. Norges invests in most of the large Ibex companies 35 and in shares of the large markets to which it allocates 69.8% to equities and 27.5% to quality bonds. It has shares of more than 9,000 companies. Its risk assessments can set trends, because it invests in 63 countries (Spain diversifies more than 3% in many Ibex 35 companies).
Following other sources, most estimates agreed that 2023 would end with a recession, largely because the increase in interest rates applied by central banks would reduce economic activity. As The Economist points out, the forecasts were not met and global GDP may have grown by 3%.
Inflation continues its downward trend, especially in Spain. The wholesale European banking market, which now has a lower remuneration for the excess liquidity deposited in the ECB’s coffers, can put downward pressure on interest rates. At the close of the stock market in December, the average Euribor had dropped to 3.68%. The interbank will decide the future course of the mortgage reference rate. A new cut is likely. A dream always leaves an impression of grandiose and absolute. This arises from the fact that there are no trivial details in it, but rather, as in a work of art, everything is calculated for an effect (Pavese). We expect that for the stock market in 2024.
