Chinese diplomacy scored a new success this Friday, announcing a ceasefire in Burma between the army and the guerrilla alliance, again on the offensive since last October. Representatives of both sides reportedly met between Wednesday and Thursday in Kunming, capital of the Chinese border province of Yunnan, at the request of Beijing. The news of the truce, with “immediate effects” was released by surprise by the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Mao Ning, during her Friday speech.
According to Mao, both the Burmese military and the three associated ethnic guerrillas have agreed to “stop the fighting and resolve disputes through dialogue.” Likewise, both parties would have committed to respecting the integrity of Chinese people and interests, a week after a stray shell caused casualties on the Chinese side of the border.
In mid-December there was already a failed ceasefire attempt, also through Chinese mediation. Although China is the great ally of the Burma junta – as it is also of neighboring Laos – the authorities in Beijing have shown signs of losing patience with the Burmese generals. A major cause of friction is the shelter that they have found on their side of the border – nominally under government protection – related militias that control glitzy casinos and brothels for Chinese tourists and, above all, industrial-scale telephone and electronic cyber fraud operations against their citizens.
The Burmese military regained the reins of power with a coup in 2021, alleging that the ruling party, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, had given up. Last October, a narco-guerrilla alliance began its biggest offensive since then, with some initial hits. These practically coincided with the first joint naval maneuvers of the Russian and Burmese navy, off the coast of the former British colony.
Although the Burmese military junta accumulates reasons to deserve the contempt of the West, the truth is that the ultimate motives of the “ethnic” guerrillas are more related to the control of drug trafficking than to any political ideal, much less democratic.
For example, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has been a key player in drug trafficking to India and beyond for decades. The “Flower of Shan”, a drug several times more addictive than heroin due to its mixture of opioids with methamphetamines, is the latest headache for the social and health services of the border states of northeastern India, with a long trail of deaths.
Although during the last two decades the “ethnic” guerrillas had converted to the production of synthetic drugs, the virtual eradication of poppy in Afghanistan by the Taliban has returned to the Burmese Shan state its status as the world capital of production and export of opium and heroin.
Guerrillas with a long history, such as that of the aforementioned Kachin Christians, have been associated with others of dubious affiliation, such as the supposed Arakan Army, many dozens of kilometers from the territory inhabited by the ethnic group it claims to represent. The most notable success of this strange offensive would have returned the capital of Kokang to the self-styled Army of the Democratic Alliance of Burma, the same mafia guerrilla that controlled the city until fifteen years ago, when the general who today leads Burma took it away.
An outcome not necessarily undesirable for Beijing, fed up as has been said with the flourishing of cyber fraud in this border city, where on the other hand Mandarin is spoken and people pay with yuan, as in the strip controlled by the Wa guerrilla, no less nearby. to China.
The Brotherhood Alliance, which is now smoking the pipe of peace, is specifically formed by the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (of the Palaung minority of Shan) and the Burma Democratic Alliance Army.
According to the Burmese opposition media The Irrawaddy and DVB, the talks were attended by General Min Naing representing the military junta, China’s special representative for Burma, Deng Xijun, and delegates from the three guerrillas.
The Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in October, in reference to the start date of the offensive, in Kokang. This then spread to various parts of the country with the opportunistic support of other rebel groups, such as the aforementioned KIA and even alleged militiamen of the once again outlawed democratic forces. Or at least, that’s how the hyperactive digital media of the “resistance” in exile sold it, after some first-time successes, duly magnified. Judging by these media, the days of the military junta were numbered, but observers on the ground report a very different reality.
Even so, the rebel groups claim to have taken over two dozen municipalities in different areas, including Laukkai, the capital of Kokang, where control of dozens of casinos and also a transit point for Chinese imports and exports is at stake.
In any case, the economic situation in Burma – and not just political – is very unflattering. Millions of its citizens have emigrated irregularly to Thailand in recent years, to carry out unskilled jobs.
Likewise, at the end of the last decade, after a chain of jihadist attacks that triggered a massive and indiscriminate response by the Burmese Tatmadaw, more than half a million Bengali Muslims with decades of residence in the Burmese state of Arracán – the self-proclaimed Rohiñás – They also emigrated – or returned – to Bangladesh, where most of them live poorly in refugee camps in Chittagong, where their same dialect is spoken. Today there are almost a million.
It should be added that a spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army would have confirmed to Agence France Presse this week’s ceasefire, which would include the reopening of cross-border trade where it had been blocked.
Likewise, two cities taken by the aforementioned Alliance, Hopang and Panglong, have been ceded in recent days to the United Army of the Wa State, a very well-equipped ex-communist narco-guerrilla group practically sovereign over its territory, but which maintains good relations with both the state Burmese as with the Chinese state.
This week’s agreement has also been confirmed by Burmese general Zaw Min Tun, so the artillery barrages and aerial bombardments registered until yesterday in Shan and Arracán are suspended.
It should be noted that Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong had visited Burma earlier this month to ask General Min Aung Hlaing to do more to put an end to cyber fraud operations from Burmese territory. Last year, Beijing obtained the extradition of 41,000 fraudsters, accused of deceitfully appropriating sums equivalent to billions of euros. This is a problem shared throughout Southeast Asia.
Finally, China promises to continue playing a constructive role and trusts that both parties will respect the agreement and exercise maximum restraint, according to Foreign Affairs. Although the conflict on its Burmese border is not deactivated, the Chinese government can focus this weekend on the outcome of the electoral battle on the other side of the Formosa Strait.
Less than a year ago, Chinese diplomacy was behind another reconciliation that seemed impossible, bringing together representatives from Iran and Saudi Arabia in Beijing. This same year, both will formalize their entry into the BRICS, a multinational forum in which China is the largest power.
