Mainland China and Taiwan are opposites and interdependent, like yin and yang. The ballots of nineteen million Taiwanese will decide on Saturday the degree of opposition and also the degree of dependence. After decades of practice they have learned where the red lines are, when to exhaust and when to correct, under the scrutinizing gaze of Washington and Beijing.
Hundreds of thousands of supporters attended the end-of-campaign rallies last night, according to the aforementioned classification. Slightly ahead in the polls of ten days ago, the “independence” candidate Lai Ching Te aspires to retain the presidency for the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP). Centrist in the economic field, advanced in the social field and, even with the brakes on, towards independence. Or the successor, an even greater rapprochement with Washington and its allies.
If he succeeded, adding the two legislatures of President Tsai Ingwen, it would be a record. It will not be enough to declare independence. “There’s no need, Taiwan is already a country,” says Lai.
It would be a record, but also a raucous challenge. According to the most harmonious calculations, even in the best case scenario, the PDP will lose the majority in Parliament that it has enjoyed so far. It is also not ruled out that there will be an alternation, with a return of the Pactist Kuomintang to the presidency, with Hou Yu Ih. The Chinese Nationalist Party (that’s what it means) is the party of order and, as such, proposes a former director of the Police. The order passes today to banish “adventurism” and resume communication with Beijing, interrupted eight years ago.
“Taiwan must not be a pawn”, they say. Even these historic enemies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have come to the conclusion that confrontation comes at a price. “The Chinese tourists have disappeared, when there used to be many”, explains the Valencian artist Salvador Marco, who has been living on the island for thirteen years.
Investments from mainland China have also vanished, despite the fact that these could never go beyond being testimonials, unlike Taiwanese investments on the other side of the strait.
Taiwan regrets that Joe Biden forced TSMC to build a very expensive semiconductor factory in Arizona, which dilutes the island’s strategic character.
The third in contention, the surgeon and former mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen, seems destined to attract part of the young vote that used to be in the PDP and that now fears that it will ever touch the promised prosperity or emancipation. Not even personal.
His Taiwan People’s Party proposes a middle path, in the relationship between Washington and Beijing. However, if the joint candidacy with the Kuomintang had been consummated – there was no agreement on who should be number one – the defeat of the “independenceists” would be almost assured.
It should be noted that, for the first time, all the candidates are islanders, children of islanders. It doesn’t matter much to the People’s Liberation Army, which reiterated yesterday that it maintains vigilance” and that it will “crush” any attempt at secession.
A little more diplomatically, civilian officials in Beijing urged Taiwanese to “vote correctly,” while calling candidate Lai “dangerous.”
The CCP’s strategy of intimidation includes increasingly frequent “violations” of the “average” between the mainland and Taiwan, with fighter jets, frigates and even hot air balloons. At the same time, Taiwan continues to increase the arsenal of the United States, having left Tsai the Defense budget at 18,000 million euros, 2.6% of GDP.
He has also extended military service, which goes from four months to one year. In addition, men over 35 receive notifications to “refresh” their military training.
Taiwan does not doubt the made in Taiwan. But for Beijing its survival is the epilogue of the “century of humiliation”, in its case, the Japanese occupation, followed by the tutelage of the United States. China will one day offer an update of the “one country, two systems” formula, successfully tested in Macau and more contested in Hong Kong. But none of the candidates show interest today.
On Wednesday, Xi Jinping received the president of the Maldives, torn from Indian influence. But recovering the old Formosa will require more time. The Taiwanese have a say. They can vote.
