Insecurity in freight routes around the Red Sea, cessation of commercial operations, potential political destabilization of Egypt due to loss of revenue following the drop in traffic through the Suez Canal, cost overruns due to the use of the African route , risks for the new attempt at a peace process in the Middle East launched by the UN… The consequences of the increasing attacks by the Houthis in Yemen, with the support of Iran, on maritime traffic, on any ship that relationship with Israel, “no matter how little”, are more relevant and the European Union should react by launching its own naval mission to patrol the area, he suggests in a document sent this week to the capitals of the Twenty-seven European External Action Service (SEAE).
The Community diplomatic services, headed by the high representative of Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, already proposed in December to the member states to extend the Atalanta operation, which is dedicated to fighting piracy on the coast of Somalia, to the Indian Ocean, to join the Guardian of Prosperity mission launched by the United States, to which several EU member states have joined (Spain declined the invitation to participate). The Government of Pedro Sánchez, however, opposed the European initiative, claiming that the task of Atalanta, a mission that includes the Spanish frigate Victoria, remains necessary and its effectiveness must be reserved.
The change in the objectives of the mission required the unanimity of the Twenty-seven, there was at least one other veto apart from the Spanish one and the initiative fell, that’s why Brussels, faced with the aggravation of the situation , has spent part of the Christmas holidays looking for alternatives.
The proposal to launch a new specific European mission to respond to Houthi attacks against commercial shipping, revealed yesterday by El País, will be debated by the Foreign Ministers of the Twenty-Seven at their next meeting, on January 22. and in accordance with the timetable proposed by the EEAS, it could be launched just one month later, at the end of February. “Given the urgency to act, an emergency procedure would be adopted to develop the operational plan”, states the proposal, to which La Vanguardia has had access.
The specific means of the operation have yet to be determined, but the objective “should include at least three anti-aircraft destroyers or frigates with multi-mission capabilities for at least one year,” the document states. “We hope that Spain will not oppose it this time, but you never know”, pointed out European sources, aware of the potential internal political difficulties. As Pedro Sánchez explained to the American president, Joe Biden, in a telephone conversation at the end of the year, Madrid would indeed support the launch of a specific mission to act in the Red Sea and the Gulf.
Despite this, the Spanish Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, yesterday finally made it clear that “we will not participate in the operation in the Red Sea because we are firmly committed to other missions”, and denied that the Spanish Government had received “pressure” to accept Italy, which refused to participate yesterday in the American and British bombings against the Houthis after being invited to take part, pointed out through the mouth of the vice prime minister and head of Foreign Affairs, Antonio Tajani, that ” we participate with a frigate in the Atalanta operation and we will ask the European Union to expand the operation or give life to a new European operation with more powers for the protection of traffic in the Red Sea area”.
The Foreign Action document states that, “despite the cautious approach regarding the Guardian of Prosperity mission of the Gulf countries, it is expected that they will react positively to the new EU mission, as it will increase the security of maritime navigation and will make trade more predictable, with the consequent positive impact for its exports”. And he adds: “It is highly likely that the Houthis will continue their attacks on maritime flows, rather than acting against Israeli territory. The threat against maritime security is mainly focused on the southern Red Sea, the region of the Bab al-Mandab strait and the eastern Gulf of Aden”, explains the proposal to create the new operation, which moment has no name. “To support Hamas, Iran is using asymmetric methods and middlemen to put pressure on those who support Israel. Iran, however, keeps these actions below the threshold of direct military conflict to avoid being dragged into an open confrontation, since the northwest Indian Ocean is also important for Iranian shipping.”
This situation, warns Brussels, “seems to have contributed to opportunistic pirate attacks against five ships, from Yemen to Iran, and a merchant boat in the Horn of Africa, especially around the coast of Somalia, which that has increased the uncertainty and insecurity of commercial navigation”, warn the community diplomatic services, which see more advantages than risks in the launch of the new operation, such as the weakening of “the political and operational credibility of to the countries of the region, the international giants and the maritime industry” or the possibility of suffering from shortages in strategic supplies or an excessive dependence on third parties, in addition to a negative impact on the European economy due to the increase in prices of imports, natural resources and other goods that usually circulate through the Red Sea.
