The installed power in renewable energy (worldwide) grew by 50% in 2023, a growth rate that “opens the door to achieving the global objective of tripling established at COP28”, according to the Renewables 2023 report, Analysis and forecasts for 2028, published (January 11, 2024) by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“The world’s capacity to generate renewable electricity is expanding faster than at any time in the last three decades, giving it a real opportunity to achieve the goal of tripling global capacity by 2030 that governments set at the conference on climate change COP28 last month,” highlights the IEA in the presentation of its new annual report.
The amount of renewable energy capacity added to energy systems around the world grew by 50% in 2023, reaching almost 510 gigawatts (GW), with solar photovoltaics accounting for three-quarters of the additions worldwide, according to Renewables 2023, the latest edition of the report. IEA annual market report on the sector. The biggest growth came in China, which brought online as much solar PV in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022, while China’s wind energy additions rose 66% year-on-year. Renewable energy capacity increases in Europe, the United States and Brazil also reached record highs.
The latest analysis is the first comprehensive assessment of global trends in renewable energy deployment since the conclusion of the COP28 conference in Dubai in December. The report shows that, under existing policies and market conditions, global renewable energy capacity is now expected to grow to 7,300 GW over the 2023-28 period covered by the forecast. Solar PV and wind account for 95% of the expansion, and renewables will overtake coal to become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025. But despite unprecedented growth over the past 12 months , the world needs to go further to triple capacity by 2030, something countries agreed to do at COP28.
The IEA has also now published a new Renewable Energy Progress Tracker, which allows users to explore historical data and forecasts at regional and national levels, including tracking progress towards the tripling target.
“The new IEA report shows that, under current policies and market conditions, global renewable capacity is already on track to increase two and a half times by 2030. It is still not enough to achieve the COP28 goal of tripling energy. renewables, but we are getting closer and governments have the necessary tools to close the gap,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Onshore wind and solar photovoltaics are today cheaper than new fossil fuel plants almost everywhere and cheaper than existing fossil fuel plants in most countries.
There are still major obstacles to overcome, including the difficult global macroeconomic environment. For me, the most important challenge for the international community is to rapidly increase financing and deployment of renewable energy in most emerging and developing economies, many of which are being left behind in the new energy economy. “Success in meeting the goal of tripling will depend on this.”
“This report is the first key installment of the IEA’s follow-up work on the COP28 energy outcomes that will continue throughout 2024 and beyond,” Dr Birol said. “This builds on the five key pillars we established ahead of COP28 and encompasses tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency, reducing methane emissions, moving away from fossil fuels and increasing financing for emerging and developing economies. “We will monitor it very closely to see if countries are keeping their promises and implementing appropriate policies.”
What is needed to triple renewable energy by 2030 varies significantly by country, region and technology. The report presents an accelerated case in which faster policy implementation drives renewable energy capacity growth 21% higher than in the main forecast, which would push the world on the right path to meeting the global commitment of triple.
In advanced and large emerging economies, this would mean addressing challenges such as political uncertainty in a fragile economic environment, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure to accommodate a greater share of renewable energy, and cumbersome administrative barriers and delays in permit obtainment. In other emerging and developing economies, access to finance, strong governance and strong regulatory frameworks are essential to reduce risk and attract investment, including establishing new targets and policies in countries where they do not yet exist.
Solar PV and onshore wind deployment through 2028 is expected to double in the United States, the European Union, India and Brazil, compared to the past five years. Solar PV module prices in 2023 decreased by almost 50% year-on-year, with cost reductions and rapid deployment expected to continue. This is because global manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, significantly outstripping demand. In contrast, the wind industry (outside China) faces a more challenging environment due to a combination of continued supply chain disruption, higher costs and long permitting timelines, requiring greater policy attention. .
The report also offers a reality check on the momentum behind renewable-based hydrogen, assessing how many announced projects are likely to go ahead. Of all the projects announced around the world to use renewable energy to produce hydrogen this decade, only 7% of the proposed capacity is expected to come online by 2030. The slowness with which projects reach an investment decision is combines with buyers’ limited appetite and increased production. The costs have led to slower progress on many projects. To fully convince investors, ambitious project announcements will have to be followed by coherent policies that support demand.
In 2023, the role of biofuels will also come to the fore. Emerging economies, led by Brazil and India, are expected to drive 70% of global demand over the next five years as biofuels begin to show their true potential in hard-to-cut sectors such as air travel and as a replacement. of highly polluting fuels. like diesel. While biofuel deployment is accelerating, the report shows that this is not happening quickly enough, and a significant increase in demand is needed by 2030 to align biofuels with a net zero pathway.
