What do Spaniards expect from the future? The first answer, which according to the CIS is shared by more than 70%, is coincidental: many changes. But the division emerges over the nature of these transformations: almost 40% believe the changes will be positive, while more than 35% think they will be negative. Most of the younger 24-year-olds think the changes will be positive. And this correlation is repeated among those over 65. On the other hand, the intermediate generations (from 25 to 54 years old) are more pessimistic and both positive and negative forecasts register similar rates.
The problem for Spanish democracy is that negative perceptions are dominant when it comes to future trust in the main institutions. For example, almost half of those polled (and 60% of conservative voters) say that five years from now they will have less confidence in political parties than they do now. Of course, the left-wing electorate reflects fewer negative figures: only a third believe that they will be more distrustful of parties in the future.
Confidence in the central government is not very good either: 33% point out that, in five years, they will trust the Executive less than now, compared to only 17% who say they will trust it more. Negative rates are growing alarmingly among PP voters (45%) and, above all, Vox (59%). Half of the latter also say that, in five years, they will trust Parliament less and, above all, the press, radio or television. In other words, the ultra electorate bets on living in an informational comfort zone that allows it to remain installed in its alternative reality (with a future in which climate change would have a marginal impact).
On the other hand, the geopolitical vision of the majority of Spaniards remains lucid. For example, almost 70% of those consulted are very or quite worried about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And although this rate is 18 points less than at the beginning of the invasion, it must be borne in mind that the Russian aggression took place almost two years ago and that the current scenario incorporates other areas of conflict, such as Palestine. It should be noted that 37% of the ultra electorate do not feel any concern about a possible victory of the Russian autocrat and the implications for democratic Europe.
Finally, the perspicacity of the Spanish when it comes to interpreting the international scene can be seen in the predictions about the future hegemonic actors. While less than a third predict greater future influence from the United States or Russia, more than 72% point to China, and almost 50% to the Arab world. As for the role of Europe, 35% foresee a more important influence in the future, compared to almost 62% who predict the same (31%) or even less influence (30%).
However, not all are pessimistic forecasts. One of the positive notes reflected in the CIS survey is that relating to gender equality: almost 81% of those consulted foresee more women in positions of responsibility a decade from now. A much needed relief, in view of the results.
