On November 5, the most followed electoral process in the world will take place in the United States. They will be the first presidential elections since on January 6, 2021, a crowd of Donald Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to try to prevent the election of Joe Biden. This event, inspired by the unproven theory that there had been electoral fraud, rocked the democracy of the world’s first economy, which is still reeling from the wounds.
The Iowa caucuses that were held yesterday are the beginning of a deep election race with two stages: a primary process to choose the candidate of each party and a presidential campaign – the final sprint – filled with rallies, debates and polls, prior to the November elections. On this day, American citizens are also called to vote in legislative elections that will renew the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate (33 senators). Congress will have to certify the victory of the winner in the presidential elections, who will take office on January 20 at the Capitol in Washington.
? How do primaries work?
The process to nominate each party’s candidate begins with the holding of caucuses and primaries, and the rules vary by party and state. The objective is to elect the delegates, or representatives, who will be sent to the national convention of each party, where the nominee will be decided. In other words, it is an indirect election, since citizens do not directly elect the candidate for the White House.
Caucuses are a set of citizen assemblies in which the citizens of each county or district meet at a certain time (usually in the evening), debate and divide into groups to vote for a candidate. On the other hand, in primaries, voters go to the polls throughout the day and cast their votes.
Each state has an allocated number of delegates for each party based on population. How these delegates are distributed depends on the rules of each state and party. For example, Republicans in Iowa distribute the 40 delegates proportionally to each candidate, while whoever wins in California will take the 169 allocated for that state. Instead, the Democratic Party appoints delegates proportionally in almost every state, as long as the candidate gets 15% of the vote.
? What are national conventions?
After each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia and US territories, have held primary processes, delegates are sent to the national convention. These representatives are usually party activists and local political leaders, who will vote for their party’s nominee. But there are also “superdelegates”, who do not come from the primary process, but are automatically assigned by the party structure. The latter make up around 15% of delegates from the Democratic Party and 7% from the Republican Party.
The Republican Party will hold its convention in July in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), where a total of 2,429 delegates will elect their candidate for the White House, who will need 1,215 votes to win the nomination.
In the case of the Democratic Party, it will be held in August in Chicago (Illinois) and the winner will have to win the support of at least 1,966 of the party’s 3,932 delegates. Candidates usually announce who will be their vice president a few days before or after the national conventions.
If no candidate gets a majority in the first round of voting, it is considered an “open convention”, and more rounds will be held until there is a nominee.
This is where superdelegates come into play in the case of the Democratic Party, who will be able to freely choose their preferred candidate and tip the scales. In contrast, in the Republican Party superdelegates are required to vote for the candidate who won their state and also vote in the first round.
? What will the final stretch of the campaign be like?
After each party has chosen its candidate for the White House, the final stretch begins. In the fall, the candidates will tour the various states to try to convince voters. In particular, they will focus on the so-called swing states, or key states, which have a less clear dominance of each party, so that the nominees will want to convince the undecided to decide the majority in their favor. In this election, the states considered hinge are Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona.
In addition, between September and October, the candidates of each party will face three face-to-face debates and there will be another between the possible vice-presidents. Organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988, they will be a trial by fire for the aspirants to occupy the oval office.
The face-to-face between the candidates will be held on September 16, in San Marcos (Texas); on October 1, in Petersburg (Virginia), and on October 9, in Salt Lake City (Utah), while the debate of vice presidents will be on September 25, in Easton (Pennsylvania).
? What is voted on election day?
Every four years, on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, American citizens registered to vote are called to the polls in all fifty states and the District of Columbia. Although the electoral rules vary according to each state, all will vote on November 5 for the president of the country and will renew the entire Lower House and a third of the Senate (33 senators).
However, as in the primaries, the election of the president is indirect: the results of the elections will decide the composition of 538 members of the electoral college, who weeks later will vote for the president.
These members are distributed proportionally based on the population of each state. The candidate who gets the most votes in a state will take all contested electors, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, where they are allocated proportionally.
The candidate who receives at least 270 votes from the electoral college will win the election. Then, there will be one last step before the inauguration: Congress will have to certify the vote.
This step is usually a formality, but it gained importance after the last election, when on January 6, 2021, Trump’s supporters attacked the Capitol (seat of Congress) with the aim of paralyzing the procedure.
