The Spanish are very little concerned about the amnesty. This is reflected in the latest CIS, which places the economy, especially the quality of employment, the political debate and healthcare among its main concerns. It is the same appreciation that spreads to the Government of Pedro Sánchez, which takes for granted the wear and tear this measure may have had on its electoral expectations. Despite this, the Galician elections have been brought forward to February 18 precisely because the PP hopes to make the processing of the law profitable. This year’s electoral cycle will indicate whether this is the case or not, although what will mark the length of the legislature will be the elections to the Generalitat.
The Galicians are a challenge for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, not for the PSOE. The Basque elections are not a stimulus for socialists and popular people. The European ones do lend themselves to measuring the strength of the two parties. It is an appointment that tends to give notices to the current government and the PP relies on this, which proposes them as a plebiscite on the pacts of the PSOE with Catalan and Basque independence. In turn, Sánchez will try to squeeze his leadership in Europe and will present himself as a bulwark against the ultra-right current that is emerging in countries around us, as he already did at the Davos forum. All these milestones are relevant, but the Catalan elections will be a turning point that can change everything. Only if Salvador Illa is president of the Generalitat, Sánchez will be able to defend the goodness of his pacts and face the rest of the legislature with options. The result of Junts and ERC will also mark their attitude in Congress.
So to the permanent electoral campaign between PP and PSOE must be added the one that has already started in Catalonia. Yesterday, Pere Aragonès was proposed as an ERC candidate, cauterizing temptations of internal division, while Junts is still pending the judicial situation and the personal decision of Carles Puigdemont. Beyond the candidates, the Catalan campaign will be decided around which party is more influential in Madrid.
The dialogue is constant. In addition to the table between the governments of Aragonès and Sánchez, contacts between Minister Félix Bolaños and ERC leaders such as Josep Maria Jové are proliferating. Also the commissions between the two executives, such as that of the future of El Prat airport or that of the transfer of Rodalies, as well as other contacts such as those that have facilitated the application of the rent limitation in Catalonia. Junts has also taken the path of thorough dialogue, with a political table with a verifier and two pending commissions to address financing and economic affairs on the one hand, and that relating to self-government such as powers or defense from Catalan on the other.
Whether this negotiating frenzy will be fruitful is a different matter. The PSOE resists many demands, although it also messes up the ERC exchange with the airport and Junts kicks the wheel by asking for sanctions against the companies that left Catalonia. But now they all want to offer a bargain image. Six years after the independence crisis, there is even an overdose of dialogue. (Even the PP and Junts have tried). Let’s enter a competition to see who defends the interests of the Catalans in Madrid more and better. CiU sublimated the fish in the cave and now there are fishermen everywhere.
The PSC also demands from the PSOE that it reserve prominence as a lobbyist. The elections to the Generalitat will depend on who has more influence, who is more efficient, who starts more, whether smoke or not what is achieved. The result in Catalonia will mark Spanish politics depending on the scenario: if independence gains a majority, if it is able to materialize it or not, if the fight between ERC and Junts is as close as it has been so far or if one leaves behind the another, if Illa wins the presidency with a result that allows him to govern in a minority or if he needs another partner in the government and, in the latter case, if the ally is ERC, a more likely option at the moment than that of Junts. With this scenario and the amnesty law advancing rapidly, now is the time for dialogue and dialogue. You’ll see later.
