Spanish banks expect that demand for loans will continue to fall in the first half and that conditions will tighten further, although at a lower intensity than at the end of 2023, according to the latest edition of the Bank Loan Survey carried out by the Central Bank. European Union (ECB) and the Bank of Spain.
The results of the survey, more qualitative than quantitative, give a measure of the banks’ forecasts after the consolidation of interest rates at levels of 4.5% and just a few days before the presentation of their annual results, in which who will offer their forecasts for this year.
Their perception contrasts with that of the euro zone average, where for the first time since the beginning of 2022, entities expect at least an increase in demand for loans for housing or companies at the start of this year. They also predict an improvement in access to financing in practically all banking products.
The forecast of the Spanish entities is that there will be a “general reduction in loan applications, with a similar intensity or somewhat greater than that registered between October and December.” It will also be accompanied by restrictions on supply, which “will contract again in the segment of loans to households for consumption and other purposes.”
Among the main economies of the euro zone, the ECB also detects in the latest survey that the margins of banking entities increased in France and Spain in the third quarter of last year, in which credit conditions also tightened, compared to what occurred in Germany and Italy, where the trend was the opposite.
The increase in margins in Spain in the fourth quarter of the year was “slight” and was seen above all in financing for companies and the purchase of homes, he indicates. On the other hand, in consumer loans a contraction in the profitability obtained by banks is already detected.
Another conclusion of the survey is that the ratio of doubtful loans is at a low level in Spain, just 3.6%, although the entities report that it exerts pressure that causes a “certain tightening of the criteria.” of concession in loans to households”.
There is an “increase in perceived risks” and “less tolerance to them on the part of some financial entities”, according to the Bank of Spain’s interpretation of the survey.
