Basque society is nationalist. If something changes, it is the formula that the citizens of Euskadi consider at all times to be the most appropriate to express that feeling. Both the PNV and EH Bildu have lowered identity demands and have positioned themselves in a possibilist nationalism that the Basques have rewarded. The fight, therefore, is not about who has the most independence pedigree, as in Catalonia. What a good part of Basque society was considering yesterday on the way to the electoral college is whether to continue trusting the PNV and its Lampedusian replacement as leader or shift to the left.
These may be the last Basque elections in which ETA has had influence in the political debate. Pello Otxandiano’s reluctance to refer to ETA as a terrorist group has marked the last days of the campaign, but it has not been a determining factor. It is possible that in the next four years EH Bildu will be able to follow the path towards normalization that it still finds difficult to assume and different alliances will then be opened, both between the nationalist left with the PSE and the PNV with the PP.
The results also have a reading for Spanish politics. If EH Bildu takes more steps to separate itself from ETA and voters see that force increasingly as something unrelated to terrorism, certain speeches by the PP and Vox in Congress will become more extemporaneous every day.
The PP wins a seat and Vox remains. The difficulty of the popular to penetrate the social fabric of Euskadi continues. Furthermore, they do not recover the leak on the right side. In any case, Alberto Núñez Feijóo can rest assured. His bet, Javier de Andrés, goes up one seat.
The Basque result is good news for Pedro Sánchez. The phenomenon of Galicia has not been repeated, where the socialists suffered a drain on the BNG. Here, the PSE grows two seats. The votes that both Bildu and the socialists receive come from the world of Podemos and Sumar, punished with relentless defeat.
Once the break with Podemos has been completed, the bad timing of Yolanda Díaz’s formation is becoming less and less of a concern in Moncloa, which believes it can recover the votes that Sumar is losing and ward off the risk of them being orphaned. Yesterday’s result supports that thesis. The Basque flank gives peace of mind to Sánchez and his delicate balance in Congress. Not only does she preserve her alliance with the PNV, but she can see her relationship with one of her most stable parliamentary allies such as Bildu becoming more normalized every day.
